The End is Near

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I'm curious why there are so few posts or blogs relating to the reconciliation of the sales proceeds versus what is owed to the unsecured creditors...still too many variables? With the business unit sales completed all that required is a guess on the patents to arrive at the numerator.

Nortel may not totally dissolve for Two years.
The company will live on under Business Services.
I imagine as long as there is some vestige left there will be no payouts
to creditors. If payouts do come it could be 2013.
Nobody really knows what the common folk will get on a return on the dollar
but it could be as low as 2 cents on the dollar and as high as 15.
I don't know where people are coming up with 50 cents on the dollar after you subtract time, legal fees, preferred creditors, money tied up for other issues.

Yes, the real end isn't all that near. Cleaning up the contracts that were not picked up in the acquisitions will take considerable time in addition to the completion of asset sales. There were even discussions at one point that saw NBS surviving through restructuring the contracts that were left behind, this would seem optimistic but supports your view that the end will be not that near.

Of real value to the unsecured creditors would have been if Nortel had "insourced" the legal resources required to do all this. Would have likely generated savings in legal costs that exceeded the earnings of some of the business units.

My initial comment was really directed at the absence of any discussion on the reconciliation which seemed odd given its importance. Must simply be the variability of the elements makes the usual speculation difficult.

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Ciena calls selling like wildfire on rumours of Nokia Siemens take over bid.....

Telecom equipment maker Nokia Siemens Networks is not planning an offer for U.S. gear maker Ciena Corp (CIEN.O), a source close to NSN said, despite market speculation of a deal.

Ciena attracted bullish options activity on Tuesday on rumors Nokia Siemens, a joint venture of Nokia Oyj (NOK1V.HE) of Finland and Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE) of Germany, will buy Ciena, analysts said.

US patents are issued every Tuesday and every week Nortel has 2 or 3 new ones. This process will persist even when these patent applications are owned by other companies. Patents will be still issued in Nortel's name for several years.

This will be the lsat aspect of Nortel's existence. Even when everything else is gone, patents will still be being issued. And the last patent issued will have a 20 year life. So Nortel will be in some sort of ghost existence for at least 25 or so more years.

I wonder who will be the inventors on the last Nortel patent to issue? I wonder if they will even remember what they did at Nortel by then.

I think Mark is looking at this Nortel corporate history with Rose tinted glasses.
Companies get bought out/taken over/merged all the time. It's not a bad thing, it's natural business evolution.

Nortel to me was about the technology, not the way the company was managed. The best bits of the technology will live on, in the hands of its new owners. The engineering expertise will live on, with expertise applied by those same engineers in whichever firms they now work for.

Think of Nortel like a father who had a lot of children. He taught them well and saw them develop. And now they are all grown up and going into the wide world to make their own way. Father got put into a home where he declined over 10 years, and now the E&Y doctor has arrived to make his final hours less painful.

The LG JV may not be worth all that much... it was a going concern as a business before Nortel came along. Each partner did bring something to the JV, it was quite a genuine partnership. But now Nortel's gone, nothing left to bring... I assume they get whatever someone might pay for goodwill. It probably goes back to being LG only (products and ownership). I would think Netas will be similar...

And sorry but I don't personally think there's much to be had in patents either. Heard it all before, and nothing has come of it. Like CVAS, leaving it last appears to mean, there are no takers of any substance.
Especially LTE patents Mark keeps mentioning. What patents?? Nortel was never in the picture for LTE, they chose Wimax and failed. I ask, what might Nortel patents offer to LTE players, that isn't already met in their successful offerings? Ditto for Wimax for that matter. I admit I'm far from an expert, but can anyone point to some hard evidence there's some stuff worth decent money that someone will actually pay?

Netas will be sold along with CVAS. They're not separable.

Netas is a publicly traded corporation on the Istanbul Stock Exchange with Nortel holding 53% of the shares. I believe Nortel can sell these shares at any time they want and it doesn't need to be part of the CVAS deal. Contracts in place between CVAS and Netas can be assumed by the CVAS purchaser, just like contracts with Flextronics and others in the other business unit sales.

I have not seen anything stating that Netas is included in the deal. You have any details stating they are included.

This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end
Of everything that stands, the end
No safety or surprise, the end
I'll never look into your eyes...again
Can you picture what will be
So limitless and free
Desperately in need...of some...stranger's hand
In a...desperate land
Lost in a Roman...wilderness of pain
And all the children are insane
All the children are insane
Waiting for the summer rain, yeah
There's danger on the edge of town
Ride the King's highway, baby
Weird scenes inside the gold mine
Ride the highway west, baby
Ride the snake, ride the snake
To the lake, the ancient lake, baby
The snake is long, seven miles
Ride the snake...he's old, and his skin is cold
The west is the best
The west is the best
Get here, and we'll do the rest
The blue bus is callin' us
The blue bus is callin' us
Driver, where you taken' us
The killer awoke before dawn, he put his boots on
He took a face from the ancient gallery
And he walked on down the hall
He went into the room where his sister lived, and...then he
Paid a visit to his brother, and then he
He walked on down the hall, and
And he came to a door...and he looked inside
Father, yes son, I want to kill you
Mother...I want to...WAAAAAA
C'mon baby,--------- No "take a chance with us"
C'mon baby, take a chance with us
C'mon baby, take a chance with us
And meet me at the back of the blue bus
Doin' a blue rock
On a blue bus
Doin' a blue rock
C'mon, yeah
Kill, kill, kill, kill, kill, kill
This is the end
Beautiful friend
This is the end
My only friend, the end
It hurts to set you free
But you'll never follow me
The end of laughter and soft lies
The end of nights we tried to die
This is the end

MC

Chinese people never swear, Ah-so! Ah-so!
Till for Nortel they did care, and ah-so pay!
Nor-tel come down like hat caved in, Ah-so! Ah-so!
All that left is gold-turned-tin, oh, hoo-rah ray.

Nortel run alright!
(Till) gaijin run away!
Z take the money, high-tail at night,
Somebody sell on eBay.

- Idle minds

OMG ...so this is your answer to "boring"?
Poetry?

(snickers)

Get a life, Proto !

Geezuz - enough of your drivel already...

MC

I think Gov is faulty here... no one cared.....

The way Canada gov handled the Nortel Case and Indian Gov handling SATYAM Case shall be compared in future for M.B.A Studies. Belive me Indian Gov was so good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRRRmKO26zU&feature=related

lol - the balmy sunny weather outside may be helping a bit, but Mike's "rambling, disjointed, almost incoherent description of what he would have done differently to avoid Chapter 11 / CCAA" is sounding a bit funnier in 2010.

Also: http://media.www.eupspectator.com/media/storage/paper1345/news/2009/10/15/Sports/New-Dome.A.Big.Step.For.Athletics-3803149.shtml
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10/15/09 The Mike S. Zafirovski Sports and Recreation Center is 85,000 square feet and stands more than six stories tall and could begin holding practices in as soon as two to three weeks and for certain by the spring semester.

The multipurpose dome has been looming over our campus for the last year and it's finally close to completion.

The dome has 85,000 square feet to operate in, along with four basketball courts and volleyball net
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Mike jr. asks: "85,000 square feet - how much is that in DMS switch footprints, Dad? You know that, I just know you do! And, Dad - your multipurpose dome has been looming over our campus for the last year and it's finally close to completion!"

Mike sr. smirks laconically: "The doom has been looming over our multipurpose campus for the last year and it's finally to be closed completely."

Patents 2.5Billion ?

In Nortel's case, ethics is key. resulted in the largest fraud settlement in Canada. Ruined thousands of lives.

Their business model and corporate governance should be avoided like the plague.

A laughable mosaic as the poster boy of exactly what not to do. The endless follies were to be seen to be believed.

Thankfully, they are gone now.

For all intents and purposes Nortel is gone but the name will survive for a few years.
Ethics or lackthereof didn't kill Nortel.
The blame lies on alot of shoulders.
The Bored of Directors, Roth, Chandran, Dunn, Owens, Zavirofski, Bad Marketing,
Brutal inaction by the Canadian gov't to BUY Nortel over the years, Inability to captialize with many advantages thanks to the ineptitude of Canadian politicians and pathetic nortel executive and lower level management.
At least the new buyers (Eric, Avaya, Ciena) have all picked up good, leading edge and promising technology so the Canadian gov't can't screw it with their lack of inaction anymore since everything has been sold off to foreign interests.
One has to laugh while watching the official opposition headed by Iggy, Taliban jack and Rae the Traitorous one pining and brewing over how jihadist terrorist suspects were treated by afghan police when the canadian military simply are doing their job and handing them over. This debacle which nobody in canada cares about gets more air time and attention than the pension debacle. It really figures. I guess the opposition think canada is full of terrorist sympathizers. They couldn't be more wrong. They'll find out at the next election.

Most of it didnt have to happen.

"Nortel is gone but the name will survive for a few years."
Its gone, no restructuring... and what name? where? for who? the creditors?

"Ethics or lackthereof didn't kill Nortel."
No? Have you forgotten the endless and astounding events since April 2004 that ruined their credibility...to eventual demise.

The name will exist and live with Equipment, literature and casual reference. Do I have to spell everything out for you.
Ethics or lackthereof did not kill Nortel.
"Astounding events" were simply a reflection and indicator of how
bad things were. Ruination of their credibility had nothing to do with
their demise. Ruination of their credibility was a consequence of all the things I listed which did in fact kill it.
Listen up and get with the program.

Any insight on the Passport (MSS) unit? Does that get sold, or does it die down to oblivion?

All those bendy pins in them are just too much trouble, so...

Nah, they were supposedly on the way out any which old way.

So how near is the end? Didn't they hire expensive consultants to review all the patents and didn't they say that would take about a year? Was that not November? And when will they enter into bankruptcy and how long will Nortel work under CCAA as an ongoing concern when there is nothing left but a few consultants to package up patents for a retail garage sale again? My estimate as to how it all rolls out will be to sell off the patents in August 2010, have the Canadian government allow Nortel to continue to work under CCAA protection as an ongoing concern so the remaining employees will feed off their their big bonuses and then one year in Bankruptcy to figure it all out. End of day for Nortel - sometime in the fall of 2011. Anyone else have a guess?

"So how near is the end?"

Around a year ago.

Nortel Business Services (NBS) will need to be active for the duration of the various Transition Services Agreements in place with the various business unit purchasers. Your suggestion of fall, 2011 is likely pretty close.

There is also the Nortel Netas investment to be dealt with since Netas is a publicly traded company on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and Nortel holding around 53% of the shares. Back in August, it was reported that those shares were valued around $78 Million USD.

now the shares value is about $140 Million for this %53 Netas

Its unfortunate that photography was strictly forbidden throughout NT R&D (mostly to keep communist Cisco from stealing their proven priceless zero-energy experiments and stuff) because, in retrospect, had we known NT was going to vanish, we could've perhaps ended the book's last chapter with a photo montage of poignant memories, both good and bad. I picture:

- our printers' recycling boxes overflowing with correspondence cover pages every day, pre-Z
- one crazy coot's extensive NT document/software collection, spanning the length and height of the campus' service elevator hallway
- the wizened Showcase Lab gentleman's tearful eyes as he beheld his green slip
- the many reclamation skids packed with unused - if outdated - hardware and sundries, selling @ couple $20 per
- the oddly beautiful craters in the "hot" -48v copper plates to which installation occasionally managed to touch a grounded cable
- the TV on a rollaround cart set amongst our cubes that we watched 9/11 unfold from
- the many small labs once crammed into closets that came and went seemingly weekly during the telecom heyday
- the nice cable repair lady's fully-stocked workbench
- the unsecured DMS peripheral frame that somehow managed to fall flat on its face, compacting its technology, but for the worse
- the dapper salesperson (internal? external? Cisco?) strapped into the campus lobby's heart attack detector machine while clutching his briefcase
- the annual raising of the campus Xmas wreath
- the colorful miles of DSX patches and hardwires
- DMS command prompt interfaces forever burned into the ever-on screens of the labs' MAPs
- some 20km worth of fiber spools spliced together in a single rack
- the subfloor filled to the tile and beyond with cabling
- the modest "WiFi Treehouse" lab that was, then wasn't, then was, when it wasn't
- NT Dumpster divers lovin' it!
- the NT parking lots looking strangely like new car dealerships ca. 1999-2000
- yet another "Town Hall" invitation via e-mail
- full cubicles vs. vacated cubicles

Edit:

I gaze out the window into the wintery rain and remember how, in the stillness of my memory, it washed me clean.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEi7GPkxfsE&feature=rec-rev-rn-1r-5-HM

Every story tells a picture..... don't it? ;>)

http://www.clareultimo.com/every-story.php

Or the requirement in Ottawa to maintain a paper library of ITU and other recommdnedations long after it was available on line? Or the paper library in the Richardson lab, again long after that data was available to those who really needed it on line. It wasn't always simple...I remember in 1994 being asked why I needed access to the Internet. Certainly all the SMEs and such were available on the Intranet or COKAL! The requirement for meeting reports that virtually no one would ever read but that were kept on something called GSIMS. These were legacy processes....dating to the day and age when NTPs and such were only available in a paper format. If that part of NT was unable to imporove over time it seems to have been an indication of serious inability to adapt to a changing business culture.

Aye, I see it vividly! :)

I always imagined maintaining an online Wiki, of sorts, in which all manner of product stats, scripts and cheats would have been kept and modfied as needed by and for people on the lab floor. Proprietary is fine and dandy, but time is of the essence, too. Six Sigma said so.

Lets get an update on the Nortel execs who presided over this fiasco:

Frank Dunn: employed as consultant
John Roth: retired
Mike Zafirovski: unemployed
Bill Owens: working for a VC company
Richard Lowe: exec at Ericsson
Joel Hackney: exec at Avaya
Phil Morin: exec at Ciena
Lauren Flaherty: CMO at Juniper
Peter Currie: board member at Arise
Lynton "Red" Wilson: Chairman at CAE, also member of other boards
Pascal Debon: running his own company in France
Sue Spradley: exec at NSN
Dietmar Wendt: "managing partner" at ICT
John Roese: CEO at Versepoint

Can you fill in the rest?

can you fill in the rest?

These people are still getting great jobs after for the most : being poor or at best, average managers. This proves that when you have your entries in this Corporate World you can get away with murder.

yep, got two more for you from CALA:

Dion Joannou - CEO of 37-employee alternative burial company Neptune Society since January 2009. He is also an advisor to TowerBrook Capital Partners since September 2008.

Martha Bejar - became President of Global Sales and Operations at India-based Wipro Technologies in July of this year after a 2-yr stint as VP of Communications at MicroSoft.

Hopefully this BLOG will cease to exist too !

BORrrriiingggg....

MC

Without this blog protosphere will cease to exist...........

As will several of your aliases.

Leave the blog alone... you are boring
Why don't you cease to post instead.

<<...business school case studies...>>

Maybe that was the problem in the first place.

Hello Mark,
what do you think about the Nortel Netas Turkey ?
B.R.

It is a big Turkey and I don't think it will fly.

this is racist!!!

maybe not fly but surely it will run very fastly...