Optical Market Expected to Decline

umm, isn't almost everything supposed to decline ? (i.e. because we are in a global economic crisis)
playing devil's advocate here

One thing that won't decline is Z and the leadership team's compensation. See Docket 362. They are asking the court to allow them to hire Mercer as a “Compensation Specialist”. Elena King, Nortel's HR hatchet woman, is too busy to total up Mike Z's new salary. She is busy holding GIS's where she tells the leaders to be proud of their ruthlessness in dealing with the peasant workers.

Good Point.
What business is Nortel in that is expected to Grow this year?
Wimax is Dead.
Carrier Ethernet is Dead.
CDMA is probably in for some rough declines again?
Enterprise sales will go down like optical.
LTE is still in trials and they haven't even won any contracts.
It's all bad but you have to look the lesser of the evils.
I would say optical and enterprise are the lesser of the evils right now.
Very few companies are actually seeing their market rise in the face of this recession, but a good point made is that Asia seems to be in the first stages
of recovery already.

Mercer!!!! this is the most incompetent organization I've had the pleasure of dealing with. They lie and don't return calls, get your employment/terminate/vesting date wrong and can't seem to calculate anything correctly. I literally had to threatned to hold on the phone for six days before they elevated my problem to a supervisor who immediately got paperwork Fedx'd to me this past weekend that I was due on January 1st. If Mercer gets contracted as compensation specialist, everyones pay will be $0 and you will get it six months after originally due.

I think we will see a revenue forecast at 25% to 35% lower than 2008 revenues. Even Cisco suggested that some business is expected to go about 20% lower.

On the LTE front, Nortel did win a piece of the KDDI Packet Core business in December with Hitachi. You're very right though that LTE won't generate much revenue in 2009.

Agree. Mercer cannot even add and subtract when dealing with pension payouts.

Big breaks ahead for 40/100GbE
—————————————————-

Early adopters of 40/100Gb Ethernet will not be delayed by the economic slowdown, according to the CIR, a market research group that focuses on optical components and optical communications. This is because huge companies like Google and Amazon already have a “desperate need” for 100Gb connections.

CIR added that even though the economic situation is having an impact on carrier network upgrades, scaling carrier networks to 100Gbps will now only be accomplished using a 40/100Gbps variant.

In its latest report, CIR says the market for 40/100GbE transceivers will reach Rs.2,396.46 crore ($ 482 million) in revenues by 2013.

The researchers suggest just a handful of firms are likely to shape the future of 40/100Gb Ethernet. These include Cisco, Juniper, Sun Microsystems, Force10, Nortel at the OEM level, and JDSU, Finisar, Avago, Luxtera and Opnext at the transceiver level.

At the component level, the main players are likely to include Xilinx, Altera, IBM, LSI, Gennum, AMCC, Vitesse and Broadcom.

The adoption of 40GbE is predicted to start in high-end servers and high-performance computing applications. Within the 40GbE environment, initially as much as 80 per cent of the market will be accounted for by the SR4 version of the 40/100GbE standard.

However, the SR4 version is expected to lose share to CR4 over time as 40Gbps over-copper becomes more viable.

CIR expects both CR4 and SR4 to quickly lose share once serial 40Gbit Ethernet becomes a reality in 2014.

100GbE is expected to be adopted initially in the core of the network, driven by growth in 100GbE server connections and access points.

And as 100Gbit Ethernet begins to generate revenues in around 2012, CIR expects the LR4 variant to account for maybe half the market, with SR10 taking another 20 per cent of the market. However, improvements in copper technology should drive CR10 share of the 100Gbps space to 25 per cent or so by 2016.

The initial solutions for the 40Gb Ethernet CR and SR variants will, the researchers say, rely on existing technology leveraged from InfiniBand which should give vendors a faster time to market and reduced R&D costs.

The highest investment in new technology will come from the 100Gb LR and ER variants which require new 25Gb technology for the electronics and the optical components. This will include lasers, modulator drivers, PIN diodes, TIAs and Serdes technology.
http://www.eetindia.co.in/ART_8800564402_180000…

Big breaks ahead for 40/100GbE
—————————————————-

Early adopters of 40/100Gb Ethernet will not be delayed by the economic slowdown, according to the CIR, a market research group that focuses on optical components and optical communications. This is because huge companies like Google and Amazon already have a “desperate need” for 100Gb connections.

CIR added that even though the economic situation is having an impact on carrier network upgrades, scaling carrier networks to 100Gbps will now only be accomplished using a 40/100Gbps variant.

In its latest report, CIR says the market for 40/100GbE transceivers will reach Rs.2,396.46 crore ($ 482 million) in revenues by 2013.

The researchers suggest just a handful of firms are likely to shape the future of 40/100Gb Ethernet. These include Cisco, Juniper, Sun Microsystems, Force10, Nortel at the OEM level, and JDSU, Finisar, Avago, Luxtera and Opnext at the transceiver level.

At the component level, the main players are likely to include Xilinx, Altera, IBM, LSI, Gennum, AMCC, Vitesse and Broadcom.

The adoption of 40GbE is predicted to start in high-end servers and high-performance computing applications. Within the 40GbE environment, initially as much as 80 per cent of the market will be accounted for by the SR4 version of the 40/100GbE standard.

However, the SR4 version is expected to lose share to CR4 over time as 40Gbps over-copper becomes more viable.

CIR expects both CR4 and SR4 to quickly lose share once serial 40Gbit Ethernet becomes a reality in 2014.

100GbE is expected to be adopted initially in the core of the network, driven by growth in 100GbE server connections and access points.

And as 100Gbit Ethernet begins to generate revenues in around 2012, CIR expects the LR4 variant to account for maybe half the market, with SR10 taking another 20 per cent of the market. However, improvements in copper technology should drive CR10 share of the 100Gbps space to 25 per cent or so by 2016.

The initial solutions for the 40Gb Ethernet CR and SR variants will, the researchers say, rely on existing technology leveraged from InfiniBand which should give vendors a faster time to market and reduced R&D costs.

The highest investment in new technology will come from the 100Gb LR and ER variants which require new 25Gb technology for the electronics and the optical components. This will include lasers, modulator drivers, PIN diodes, TIAs and Serdes technology.
http://www.eetindia.co.in/ART_8800564402_180000…