Wi-Max’s Uncertain Future

By Mark Evans | Published: February 9, 2009

With Nortel bailing out of the Wi-Max business, and Nokia deciding to stop selling the WiMax-friendly N810, the once bright prospects of WiMax are now becoming increasingly uncertain.

According to Infonetics, sales of fixed and mobile WiMax equipment dropped 21% to $245-million in the third quarter of 2008 from the second-quarter, while sales this year are expected to struggle.

“With less cash available for network rollout – and possibly less spectrum being auctioned until the current financial crisis passes – WiMax deployment will be inhibited for the next 12 months,” said Richard Webb, wireless analyst at Infonetics.

If WiMax continues to struggle, it could also draw into question Clearwire’s prospects.

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  • less

    I'll bet Hackney is biding his time, waiting for Clearwire (and others) to come begging (as all customers should), then resume WiMax at the cost its truly worth.

    He'll just need a bit longer than 12 months; 24-36 sounds more reasonable…

  • joremero

    What does Hackney have to do with WiMax???

  • less

    WiMax remains popular in Taiwan -

    “We're still very optimistic about WiMax,” said Chen Chao-yi, director general of Taiwan's Industrial Development Bureau, at a meeting on Friday.

    His optimism appears misplaced amid a load of bad news for the WiMax industry over the past few months.

    Nortel Networks, a major WiMax player, filed for bankruptcy protection last month and said it would stop developing mobile WiMax. Major WiMax vendor, Motorola, reported a massive 2008 net loss of US$4.2 billion and said it will lay off 4,000 workers. At the same time, several big WiMax backers, including chip giant Intel, Time Warner Cable, and Google, reduced by hundreds of millions of dollars the value of their investments in Clearwire, a company building a WiMax network across the U.S.

    “We're still very optimistic about WiMax,” said Chen Chao-yi, director general of Taiwan's Industrial Development Bureau, at a meeting on Friday

    Traditionally Nortel has long tended to throw money in the general direction of any rosy outlook.

  • less

    I'm not being literal; the spirit and attitude of Hackney is ominpresent at Nortel. He just illustrates it best.

  • TongueInCheek

    One of the reasons for the crash in the Emerging Markets CLEC business was the tightening of Vendor Financing. Now we have traditional credit markets collapsing becoming partly accountable for the decline in network spending. Emerging WiMAX players are quite similar to the Emerging CLEC player in 1999 – 2001 in terms of their business plans and marketing approach.

    Established Service Providers with wireless assets will likely continue with their LTE initiatives, but perhaps at a slower pace that originally expected. New Service Providers with a view to WiMAX will need to be cautious in this market environment, with a number of players potentially disappearing given the lack of capital.

  • Another_Nortel_Watcher

    “Nortel Networks, a major WiMax player,… “

    That statement is such a twist on reality one might think of it as 'telecom pornography'.

  • broadbandbill

    You are confusing Hackney w/John Roese. JR and the hyperconnected WiMax…–bb

  • broadbandbill

    Below is a short excerpt form a 6-page WiMax analysis I provided to Z. I have mentioned this before – I founded an early WiMax player (c2000). Did he listen to experience? Nope….–bb

    “So when I read quotes from your CTO (John Roese) saying things like: “It's (mobile WiMax) in the beta phase and in trials, and we'll see networks go live in the second half of the year, with mass commercialization in 2008. Then 2009 will see the expansion of end devices with the help of companies such as Intel Corp.” it makes my blood boil. All he is doing is showing his gross un-initiation regarding the service sector. Important to note that JR has never deployed a single product or technology in markets that account for 70% of Nortel’s revenues (telecom and wireless) and that exposure is beginning to show. Do note that your customers are also reading the same thing and are not feeling very comfortable. JR needs to sound more experienced and less hopeful, currently it is the case of the vice-versa. “

  • less

    As ever it lacks the buzzwords that true peers understand ; (

    Heres the quintessential paradigm generator for forward-faced, synergies-leveraging .. ah whatever….

    http://www.1728.com/buzzword.htm

    The instructions for this handy little tool are quite simple. Click the “Enter” button and you get one “catch-phrase” per click.

    If you are wondering, this program was written by a centralized global workforce utilizing a function-based clear-thinking projection that produced a re-engineered human-resource framework ……..

  • Another_Nortel_Watcher

    Ignorance is curable, stupidity is not. Personally, I have always had a lot more time and respect for the people who listen and ask many questions than for the blowhards like John Roese who confuse talking with thinking and the arrogant gits like Mike Z who think they have all the answers.

  • broadbandbill

    Is it any wonder how these types find one another…–bb

  • exnt2

    all the managers are moving to LTE. line managers, senior managers and directors. status unknown for poor designers. anybody know whats going on. what hapened to cost cutting.

  • Another_Nortel_Watcher

    Forget about WiMax, here comes LTE. Until the board, Bill Owens, and especially Mike Z screwed everything up, Verizon was Nortel's poodle.

    http://www.engadget.com/2009/02/10/verizons-lte…

  • scalpcutter

    So you don't think Verizon will pick Nortel LTE as one of their partners?
    I think you're wrong.

  • Another_Nortel_Watcher

    No, I don't think Verizon will pick Nortel LTE as one of their principle partners because I wouldn't, if it were me. Nortel is on the ropes and the President of the division is an empty suit. Who in their right mind would place one of their most critical strategic best on that scenario?

  • scalpcutter

    Apparently there is no other LTE solution that comes even close to what Nortel has with LTE, much like the advantage they have with the 40G/100G Solution.
    They were told that by carriers who examined and tested the platforms. I would say the fact their LTE solution is so good gives them a distinct advantage with Verizon.
    We'll find out soon enough.
    Sometimes QOS, innovation and how something stacks up against the competition is what people want. They overlook pathetic managment in cases like this.

  • Another_Nortel_Watcher

    I understand your point, but if it were me there is no way I would bet on Nortel unless and until the leadership problem was fixed. If the choice is to purchase Nortel's LTE with Mike Z and Richard Lowe at the helm versus go with my second and third choices, it would be an easy decision for me to make. Who knows what boneheaded decisions those two clowns will make down the road.

  • Another_Nortel_Watcher

    Mike Z is the epitome of a bad leader. Not walking the talk, not walking the floors during times of crisis, not listening to inputs with an open mind.

    Here's some advice from a more rationale leader: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxezac0Fatw

  • broadbandbill

    Czar Z, that is what he really is…–bb

  • less

    The Wimax forum, an organisation backing the technology, says that networks based on Wimax now send their signals to 430 million people around the world and should cover 800 million by the end of 2010. Since neither technology has any significant US installed base to speak about, IT Examiner has not been able to test the differences between them.

    Maloney said that LTE is not as easy an upgrade as some suggest. He discounted Verizon's claimed trial by the end of the year, saying that LTE won’t be here for two to three years – allowing Wimax to evolve.

  • less

    http://www.itexaminer.com/wimax-teleconference-…


    On Wednesday, IT Examiner dialled into a teleconference with Sean Maloney, Intel senior vice president for Wimax evangelising. Maloney spent most of his time talking about Wimax deployments outside the US.

    Next week is the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain, and Maloney wanted to make sure the industry was up to date on the worldwide deployment of Wimax. He probably wanted to talk about “over there” because the only Wimax provider in the US is Clearwire, with just two operational locations – Baltimore, Maryland and Portland, Oregon – which are using the “Clear” brand.

    The Wimax forum, an organisation backing the technology, says that networks based on Wimax now send their signals to 430 million people around the world and should cover 800 million by the end of 2010. Since neither technology has any significant US installed base to speak about, IT Examiner has not been able to test the differences between them.

    Maloney said that LTE is not as easy an upgrade as some suggest. He discounted Verizon's claimed trial by the end of the year, saying that LTE won’t be here for two to three years – allowing Wimax to evolve.

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