How Low Can it Go? | All About Nortel

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How Low Can it Go?

By Mark Evans | November 20, 2008

Nortel (NT:NYSE) dropped to 45 cents this morning, giving the company a market capitalization of $226.1-million. (Keep in the mind, the major stock indices are down 1% to 2% today).

The question is how low can Nortel go? Is Mark Sue’s target price of zero that far away?

Clearly, investors have lost confidence in Nortel’s prospects and strategic direction, so now what?

Two schools of thought: one, Nortel’s doomed due to its uncertain financial prospects, volatile economic conditions and cash burn; or two, Nortel is becoming a no-brainer bargain if CEO Mike Zafirovski’s plan to reduce operating expenses and focus on enterprise, software and telecom pays off.

What’s an investor to do?

Technorati Tags: mike zafirovski, Nortel

Topics: Stock |

Viewing 58 Comments

Buyonbadnews 6 months ago 1 point
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Maybe the institutional investors see something good here?

According to Larry MacDonald of Canadian Business.."Yet another interesting factoid: over 400 institutional investors still hold Nortel’s stock. Moreover, they have increased their stake over the past three months by 81 net buyers. As a result, the institutionals now hold 67% of the shares. Why, one might ask, are they holding and buying if there is nothing going on at Nortel?"

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/columnists/larr...

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broadbandbill 6 months ago 1 point
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The first group is still hopeful;
The scond group is using game theory;
We hope they all do well...--bb

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Nortel watcher 6 months ago 1 point
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If one in five of the NT leadership increased their NT holdings, then that would say a lot to the market and get people off the sidelines.

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Buyonbadnews 6 months ago 1 point
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I'm not sure how it works, but is it possible that management is restricted from buying / selling as they are privy to recent inside information (good or bad)?

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puddintane 6 months ago 1 point
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"I want to know his real name and his email address so that I can discuss with my lawyer any actions I can take for this clear false accusation.
This is uncalled for and I will personally forward your criminal accusations against Nortel to their legal group tomorrow. Count on that."

Ooooooooooooo! Count me in, I want to sue, too! I've noticed that a few posts at AAN contain the harmfully negative, even slanderous contention that: "your post(s) make(s) no sense".
This is de facto lying by omission. It/they should always read: "your post(s) make(s) no sense *to me*".
Much more helpful to us all could be engaging replies such as: "please clarify" and/or "please elaborate", "is English your native tongue" and perhaps even a polling of active AAN users to support your claim that the addressed post(s) make(s) no sense to *anyone*.

Barging in here and bellowing "AAN sucks" and "you suck" and "Nortel rulez" won't help you keep your job.

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fx 6 months ago 0 points
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The board has initiated a search for a new CEO.

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broadbandbill 6 months ago 1 point
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fx,

not cool unless you can back it up!!!!!--bb

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Yes I agree. It is one thing to report negative but real news and another to make up filthy lies as this fool, fx, has continually done.

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fx 6 months ago 1 point
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stupid bastards, just wait and see. 3 weeks. i have my direct sources.

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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They said that about the "second coming" as well! But that was back around 100 AD... still waiting!

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slk 6 months ago 1 point
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That's laughable. How many millions did Nortel spend to get Mike Z? How many millions would it cost to give him his golden parachute? How many millions would it cost to install a new CEO? How many millions would it cost to switch from Mike Z's plan to the new CEO's plan? I know they like to throw money away over there, but even if were stupid enough to want a new CEO, they can't afford one.

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Clint 6 months ago 0 points
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How Do you Know.
And I suppose in parallel the CEO has initiated a search for a new BOD?
They ALL gotta go........manley first.

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exnt2 6 months ago 1 point
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can I apply. I'll file chapter 11 and sack 2000 Senior VPs, VPs, GMs, Directors and other good for nothings.

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funny to see you all 6 months ago 0 points
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Hurry up Mark,
it just hit 42 cent.... why aren't you starting a new post??? new low low price for Nortel, wow 42 cent.

You are probably too excited to type a new post right now. it will be up shortly.

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Mr Real 6 months ago 1 point
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hey, on the good side, only 41 of those kinds of posts to go :)

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The Psychiatrist 6 months ago 0 points
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Apparently the stock price for NT is more important on a dialy basis for most of the regular negative bloggers here then the actual day to day operations that go on inside NT and the livlihood it offers to the many thousands of workers and their families.
Desk jockey among others will be more than happy to let you know about that,or if he can't make it then protospherical will gladly take over,or even if he can't make it then there is always yes4apple or exnt you can rely on.

Thank you boys for your faithful reminder on the daily stock price as opposed to what really matters,how dare we consider to think that many thousands of NT workers have made it through another day without losing their livlihood for themselves or their families.

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Your attempt to hide the facts is no better than those who "hate" on Nortel and bash it continually.

I want Nortel to survive, as I have a vested interest in it. (Not via owning NT - that would not be good from a risk perspective) But unlike you I have a grip on reality. While it is true that the day-to-day swings in stock price do not affect a company's performance, a general long-term downward trend is indicative that something is wrong.

You choose to believe that the only thing wrong with Nortel is negative media coverage and that if that would just go away everything would get better and magical fairies from happy land would descend upon Carling, Richardson and RTP to blow the trumpets of triumph.

This is exactly the same sort of BS that got Nortel to where it is. Upper management either not realizing what was going on or just believing that the market was "out to get them".

No sir, we are not the ones who hate Nortel. It is instead you and the dedicated pumpers who are to blame. By your insistence of "stay the course" you have allowed the BoD to give free license to whatever madness the executive management has wanted to do. And for what? So that you can make a few more measly pennies off of your NT stock holdings? All while turning a blind eye to bad executive decisions!

I am afraid that by your actions you show who the real "haters" of Nortel are.

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fx 6 months ago 1 point
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you have no idea what you are talking about.
if you are an ex Nortel you were deep down in the food chain

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Do you read what you respond to? Or do you just post hateful comments randomly? It's no shame being dull, there are many people who didn't pay attention in high school.

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yes4aapl 6 months ago 1 point
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Thank you boys for your faithful reminder on the daily stock price as opposed to what really matters,how dare we consider to think that many thousands of NT workers have made it through another day without losing their livelihood for themselves or their families.
----
re
you have shown that you are very delusional about NT stock in last 5 years.
What Nortel's employees would find optimistic in your posts?
I say, they won't find nothing optimistic; they will just find more of your delusions!

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RightAngleTurn 6 months ago 0 points
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How about the retired Grandmother who is now eating cat food thanks to her retirement savings being gutted by the likes of Nortel? The Corporation's primary mission is to make money for these investors and their pension funds, not act as a vehicle for employee entitlements.

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yes4aapl 6 months ago 1 point
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I think you are wrong. Do you have any link to support your perception of Pension fund?
Nortel will go BK but the Pension Fund will stay there!
I think the main reason for NT going belly up will _is the Pension deficit.
Pension fund supposed to be $8 bill but at that moment it is only $5 bill. Nortel has stolen $3 bill from the Pension Plan.
Nortel has to pay it back as soon as possible and if necessary Nortel will sell All Assets to cover the deficit;! that's the rule!
It's the primary requirement.
So why you are talking about the cat food?
Answer honestly pls!

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Nortel watcher 6 months ago 1 point
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Yes4,
I believe R.A.T was referring to institutional investors when he coined the term "pension funds".

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Tongue.In.Cheek 6 months ago 0 points
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*** Nortel has stolen $3 bill from the Pension Plan. ***

You are so full of it with your lies. If this is the case, then why haven't they been charged legally?

This false accusation of a crime really needs to be reported to Nortel's Legal Group for further investigation.

Unbelievable the crap you post.

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yes4aapl 6 months ago 1 point
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*** Nortel has stolen $3 bill from the Pension Plan. ***

You are so full of it with your lies. If this is the case, then why haven't they been charged legally?

This false accusation of a crime really needs to be reported to Nortel's Legal Group for further investigation.

Unbelievable the crap you post.
-------
re
I have been right about Nortel for the last 5 years!
Show me just one post you were right about Nortel?
Just one!
You will not scare me, Sir.
You have been posting your diversion for years.
yet
NT has proven you a liar and a crook all the time.
Look at the chart!
4 Cents pre split? and you dare to challenge me?
You cannot play your diversion games with me anymore, Sir.
The Big Picture is clear.
Analysts stated that NT is going belly up and competition is using that argument to win Nortel's customers.
Nortel has been losing 25% customers in last few quarters.
but from now on
The domino effect will happen as Duncan has predicted that one.
Customers will stop buying from Nortel !
Why would they risk their investment in Nortel's crap?
Tell me!
and btw
You have not replied to my last post.
You just do the hit and run!
F.Y!

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Tongue.In.Cheek 6 months ago 0 points
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Now you're accusing me of being a crook .... that was definately the wrong move.

Mr. Mark Evans, I demand to know who is this guy? I want to know his real name and his email address so that I can discuss with my lawyer any actions I can take for this clear false accusation.

This is uncalled for and I will personally forward your criminal accusations against Nortel to their legal group tomorrow. Count on that.

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yes4aapl 6 months ago 0 points
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You are a crook and proven so many times.
Your diversion games are well documented on both message boards.
You have no shame to post your Strong Buy articles for sooo looong.
Meet me in Embrun to discus further actions against each other.
Wordsofwisdom aka Mr Morrison will explain to you how wrong you have been in last 5 years.
Your other IDs like Mr Evil explain it right away who you are!
and so many Ids on AAN
all created to misinform and deceive investors!
Are you denying that you are
* Not Observer
* Nortel_will_survive
* Nortel Will Survive
* Tongue.In.Cheek
You think we all are stupid investors who will buy your BS?

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yes4aapl 6 months ago 0 points
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btw
I have posted my email many times
yes4aapl2007@yahoo.com

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exnt 6 months ago 1 point
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Thank you for forwarding this information to the Nortel Legal Dept. While we appreciate your diligence we cannot take action based on some goofy comment by an anonymous person in a blog about you, an anonymous person in a blog. We recommend that you post your comments using your real name, email address, and phone number, so folks know the identity of Tongue.In.Cheek. In the meantime, Mr Tongue or is it Mrs Cheek(?), have a nice day!

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puddintane 6 months ago 1 point
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Tsk. Check out all those negative opinions about fellow posters - and by a psychiatrist no less.

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many 6 months ago 1 point
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Right they are short selling it to zero...

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Tired 6 months ago 0 points
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Well said.

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Nortelguy 6 months ago 1 point
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What price do the financial guru's here think will make the company go pop? We have just hit 43c.....

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fx 6 months ago 1 point
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Can Pat Russo be the solution and MZ replacement?

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Another Nortel Watcher 6 months ago 1 point
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That isn't even funny. Russo is no better than MZ.

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protosphere 6 months ago 2 points
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What’s an investor to do? Sell it as anything is better than nothing or avoid it like the plague as it is headed to zero beyond all odds like overkill.

#1) Nortel’s doomed due to its uncertain financial prospects, volatile economic conditions and cash burn;
Salvage what is left and run, anything is better than inevitable nothing, making ongoing lows to zero, and everyone knows they will fold this go round for exhaustive reasons ( a few detailed below) I stress exhaustive,

#2) Nortel is becoming a no-brainer bargain if CEO Mike Zafirovski’s plan to reduce operating expenses and focus on enterprise, software and telecom pays off.

We wish but impossible. Would need a "miracle" which is impossible by definition, let alone now.
Cuts alone were never enough and they can not grow the business, let alone now.
No amount of cuts or Enterprise growth with its low margins can possibly catch up to this as they look to "derisk" LTE now as they have done with long boasted WiMax.
Nortel can not even afford even more layoffs as they can not even sell more key assets to live another day
Aside from the downturn in a merged market with fewer custmers and greater competition, the broader telecom market is now being hit in this economy.
Cash burn at an increasingly alarming rate getting hit any which way they turn with increased interest and terrible credit rating, even Moody's formally warned.
Customers can go on strike all at once too to solidify this faster, in the not too distant future =)

Already losing money for a decade and having exhausting resources selling assets and /printing paper. Now, their main area that accounts for almost all of their earnings, aging CDMA (quoted as 80-90% EBT! / their "gravy train" "cash cow") is "going out to pasture" in steep decline.

Their already largest pension deficit in Canada just got worse having vested in the equities markets taking even further declines as things just keep getting worse beyond any point of no return /overkill.

Trades at 4 cents extreme 10X pre-split for a reason. If history is to foster any lessons, most lost catching the falling knife including this company's very CEO, the stock always did disappoint and trade at a premium, let alone now. Who would pay to buy a stock worth zero, or below zero, at around 1/10th the value last neared folding at $4.30 adjusted (43 cents presplit) ... made new low yet again today at 45 cents

Software companies in general have a high failure rate, let alone in telecom, and let alone in this economy...

If you don't own it, don't buy it, friends don't let friends buy Nortel,. It's has been a train wreck, toast, and on borrowed time for the last few years let alone now with escalating woes and increased talk of insolvency /liquidity crisis, what I call overkill to zero at this point, like a hammer killing a fly.

What ever one vests or holds, they will lose, simple as that for endless/exhaustive reasons at this point I suspect. Endless. Sorry to say, just endless... I guess fraud does not pay in the long run even though they kept bogus bonuses and printed paper to pay the fallout with so many still there.

...endless

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Tired 6 months ago 0 points
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Endless - that about sums up your plagued existence. Oh, and your posts too - lets not forget your endless posts.

Nortel can turn it around. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Yes. The current lack of capital spending by most enterprise customers does not bode well for Nortel, and lack of easy credit funding is a real bad sign too. But as someone else pointed out, Nortel has some terrific products and a good customer base. Yeah, its a shrinking customer base to be certain, and Nortel may have to depend a lot on upgrades to existing base rather than expansion for many months to come. But if they can stop or seriously slow the cash burn and get some solid sales in their existing customer base, they may be able to weather the storm long enough for the global markets to recover. By then, perhaps enough money will be flowing within the industry to make a buyout more attractive and feasible. Or, perhaps by then MEN will attract enough funds to give Nortel another year or two to stage a recovery. The point is that despite all the challenges, it is possible that Nortel could turn things around. It won't be pretty in the short term, and a lot of people will suffer in the meantime, but it sure as hell beats flooding another 33K more people into a weak job market all at one time.

Protosphere - your endless prophecy of doom may be correct in the end. But for God's sake, can't you stop being such an ass about it? Or at the least give it a rest - it's not like we can't search 100 other posts to read your endless crap of doom and gloom. See you in hell.

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Funny how you criticize protosphere for having an "endless" and "plagued" post by replying with your own long-winded and rambling response.

You don't seem to apply critical thought or subscribe to the rules of actual debate, instead choosing to live in the gutter of personal attacks, fiction and profanities.

Yet somehow it is the other people who "have no sense". I guess stupid is as stupid does.

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Tired 6 months ago 1 point
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Let's face it DJ - this is a time when people are really on the edge. People facing loss of their jobs, loss of their investments, loss of their customer base, etc - it makes for some really bad blood. I'm not exclusive to this. I'm facing loss of money and loss of customers - you're facing potentially loss of a job and/or an investment. I've got family and friends at Nortel facing the same thing right now. The point is that we're all on edge and you can sense that in some of the emotion that comes out in the posts. Again, I'm on the extreme end of that.

My post was hardly endless and the middle section was hardly personal. It started personal and ended personal. I take offense at the constantly repeated mantra from protosphere and his offspring (yes4appl) with the SAME content again and again and again. You want to call me a "pumper" - go ahead. Don't really care. You accuse of being personal in my comments? Thank you for pointing out the obvious. I'm not particularly proud of making personal attacks, but as I said at the start, I'm as much on edge as many people here. But I certainly don't apologize for it. There's a small handful of people on this blog that I would seriously like to tone down, but I can't control them just like you can't control me. Only our gracious host Mark Evans can do that.

Finally - and yeah, this post is babbling and endless - the really pathetic thing in my view is that you and I both really want the same thing. I want Nortel to succeed every bit as much as you - maybe even more. Protosphere and his ilk cannot say the same, because they will be dancing and cheering the day the company calls it quits. I'm not blindly pumping the stock, I'm not screaming that it's AAN and other blogs that are bringing the stock to its knees. The company's leadership and its lack of strategy combined with a terrible world economy have done that. But I still root for Nortel and still believe it can succeed.

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Tired,

Thank you for the mature response - far from babbling and endless. I appreciate your acknowledgment of the stress that we are both under and can understand that we can both make irrational statements.

Like you I want Nortel to make a come back and believe it can - just not with the current direction it is being given. However I apologize for what I now realize was unwarranted criticism of you!

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Tired 6 months ago 1 point
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I appreciate your response. Thank you. I am glad we can differ and yet agree. I will try hard in the future to refrain from great emotion in my posts. But I will be damned if it will be easy. Cheers.

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broadbandbill 6 months ago 1 point
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DJ,

When NT gets dumb enough to let you go, call me; love your logic...--bb

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The Psychiatrist 6 months ago 1 point
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You don't seem to apply critical thought or subscribe to the rules of actual debate, instead choosing to live in the gutter of personal attacks, fiction and profanities.

Yet somehow it is the other people who "have no sense". I guess stupid is as stupid does.

What was that you were saying about personal attacks?

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Psychiatrist! Funny you should call yourself that because they are also known as shrinks yet all you seem to be intent on doing is PUMPING NT for reasons unknown!

Tell me sir, why do you continue to ignore reason? Why do you continue to ignore truth? I posted a response to your inane comment above about "negative bloggers" that refuted all of your fictional points yet instead of choosing to respond to it you go for the cheap shot!

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jllw 6 months ago 1 point
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Nortel has terrific products and has had them for many years. Leadership aside, they have a wonderful team of employees that really care about their products and their customers. Worldwide, customers need Nortel to turn around. Their employees need this too. Folks should remember that many operations and lives are affected by the perceptions real or unreal that are generated as a result of speculation. I for one hope that Nortel turns things around and pays off for the shareholders and stakeholders. How about a little bit of optimism for a change?

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ex-Norteler 6 months ago 1 point
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I am not saying that AAN is making the stock price go down. I hope it was that simple. It is not. All I am saying is that stock price of all Tele infra sector are down. You should do your own research and see what is the stock price of this sector majors is doing.

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Desk Jockey 6 months ago 1 point
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Well, to be honest some of the fall has been due to volatility in the general markets. But NT was falling long before this current crisis hit. If you look at 1m, 3m, 1yr, 3yr charts of NT they all pretty much look the same - a general downtrend. This is clearly a reflection of the performance of the company and specifically the lack of leadership or real direction.

It is clear that the executive and BoD stopped caring about stock price long ago. If they did care they wouldn't dismiss the stock price plunges as just propaganda, hatred and media bias, just as many of the illegitimate pumpers here attempt to do so everyday. Deception can't last forever and they don't realize that by lying so often they only fool themselves.

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broadbandbill 6 months ago 1 point
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DJ,

Spot on! Charts don't lie; people do...--bb

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NewBlue 6 months ago 2 points
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The bigger question is, how much more did the stock drop since AAN published this blog entry, and could that drop have been prevented had Mark spun the story in a rosier light?

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Tongue.In.Cheek 6 months ago 0 points
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This blog, nor any other message board has a direct impact on Nortel share price or the share price of any other corporation.

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NewBlue 6 months ago 1 point
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Dude...did I really have to add the </sarcasm> to the end of that post?

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more 6 months ago 1 point
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happy happy Nortel happy happy shiny happy shiny happy Nortel

Look the stock went back up. Take THAT, naysayers.

</sarcasm>

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ex-Norteler 6 months ago 1 point
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There is no rhyme or reason on valuation on wall street right now. Right now any company that has any debt is being considered toxic by wall street. That is what the market does, it becomes irrational sometimes.

What has ALU done recently?? Down below $2 today from more than $8 in January. You are not singing songs of its demise. Agreed that it does not have the cash burn problem that NT has. But my point is that Telecom Infra. market is BAD place right now. It applies to everyone in the space. This is not end of the world. People are not going to stop using communication equipment, infact they are going to increase way of communication and in turn going to spend more on comm.

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puddintane 6 months ago 1 point
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Recall the deregulation of ATT and its leading to a reconsolidation of sorts, and how its deregualtion will effect our electric companies.
Any number of upstarts step in, prices fall, electricity is marketed as "green" energy, people use more of it freely, electric cars become financially feasible, then up goes the price of juice. Companies merge, etc. And so on.

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Nortelhand 6 months ago 1 point
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Why should anyone believe Mike Z? He has been wrong for 3 years.

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yes4aapl 6 months ago 0 points
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Mike Z
He is the smartest guy so far, the smartest CEO.
He prolonged Nortel business another 3 years.
That what it was in his contract.
Now he is ready to go with nice package!
Good job Mike. I forgive you all your sins about NT stock!
Only crooks and grumblers invested in that stock in last 4 years! They knew the stock is the worst on NYSE and they got in anyway.
40 cents does not look bad but $200 mill market cap tells the story!
If there were any chance for NT stock to come back there would be no Selling, just Buying at this level.
nope
Not a chance for the stock...
only BK which is the best solution for everyone!
It happened before and it will happen after NT is gone!
AirCanada
LehmanBros
What about Marconni?
Did PaviB used CH11 there?

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1 /people/yes4aapl/ /people/yes4aapl/following/

exnt2 6 months ago 1 point
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dump the stock. this is the type of stock where there is no good time to buy or hold as there is no bottom. its going to 0 so get what you can. hopefully people have not held onto 1000s of shares yet.

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Should have Sold in Feb 2004 6 months ago 1 point
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Let us pray for option #2. At a share value of .03 of revenues it has to be considered a bargain. If only some insiders would step up to the plate ...the sheep would follow. Some analyst upgrades would help as well!

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