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    Time to Turn Out the Lights?

    By Mark Evans | November 19, 2008

    So, if you thought this blog and the people who comment on it are down on Nortel, check out Fabrice Taylor’s column in today’s Globe & Mail.

    This paragraph pretty much sums up its slant/tone:


    There are other analysts and some investors who think Nortel will survive. It’s hard to say who’s right, but it’s easy to ask “who cares?” The truth is that this company has never really made any money. Nortel’s accumulated deficit, basically the sum of its bottom lines over time, is $40-billion to the bad. Okay, a lot of that is a direct result of the company’s artificially high stock price, which resulted in goodwill writedowns.

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    Topics: Financials |

    Viewing 45 Comments

      • ^
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      We have no greater enemy but ourselves. We all created this problem. Whether it is Nortel, the Nortel executive team, GM, Ford, or any other company that is starting to fall under the pressure of globalism. Yes, the corporate executives are to blame. Who else? Let me name a few. The bashers, the short sellers (yes, you are losing your jobs now too!), the many in government-union controlled "protected" jobs that like to be-little from up-high, the average citizen who would do anything to retire early (who from the Great Generation was ever allowed to do so as they fought the worlds greatest wars?) Well, we American, Canadian, Europian, etc are ALL to blame. How else do you explain the ECONOMIC downturn? Nortels faults? Sure. But we all feed at the same trough. Together. Now we all pay. WE PAY! All of us. From those who are being outsourced (sorry, everyone, Lou Dobbs has been preaching about Outsourcing America for a long time now! To those who just plain are losing their jobs, their homes, their families, and yes, even some, their lives. We must all collectively wake up. And feed ourselves. Nothing has changed. We must help each other and survive OR WE ALL WILL FAIL EVENTUALLY!. Yes, it is cold. Welcome to my world. Keep bashing everyone! So much for patriotisism! I guess that is not part of OUR generation!
      • ^
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      Steven Biko, Victoria Mxenge, Neil Aggett - you can't spell their names without "n" and "t"
      • ^
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      "Of course, to read what ["Rivethead" author Ben Hamper] has to say on these pages, you may wonder who the real crazy ones are. This insane system known as the assembly line is designed to deny individuality and eliminate self-worth. Do you ever wonder who built the car you drive? Do you think about the personal toll it extracts from those individuals who spend the best years of their lives in a hot, dirty, boring, dehumanizing factory? Out there in the rust belt... the heartbeat of America...well, they're paid so well, you know, for their "unskilled" labor. Hell, they should feel lucky they even have a job! On this book, Ben Hamper tells what a lucky guy he is."

      - "Rivethead" forward by Michael Moore

      Why doesn't anyone write about their career at Nortel from a similar lowly job perspective?
      • ^
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      Sure enough, others noticed this too:

      http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/11/19/autos.ceo.jets...
      • ^
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      ... I mean, they could've just sat in their modest cubicles and from there utilized Nortel's hyperconnected 3D Surround teleconferencing gizmo to leverage synergies with the lawmakers in Washington instead of causing more global warming?
      Methinks Mike Z could've flown in to Detroit long ago and sold his fellow leaders on Nortel - or at least traded the goods for some valuable GM stock.

      Its too late now.
      • ^
      • v
      NT=$0.52...

      Last 21 days in NYSE?
      • ^
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      "Where would we be without the Nortels, the GMs, the Fords, the Chryslers of the world? "

      Last night I watched our GM bosses literally fly to Congress to lobby for a gummint bailout so they in turn "can (maybe) save the hard-working people of America" Flew straight to Congress. In their private jets. Its that urgent. Its that important to them.

      So whats a tiny lil jet like that cost per month, I wondered?
      • ^
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      The point was, and obviously lost by all, not to give up. Keep trying. Don't feel entitled to anything. The cold reality is, that jobs are leaving. Money is leaving. The companies most people felt comfortable with in leaving their retirement money in are going. You can be like broadbandbill and say hell, that's the way its always been. Or you try to do better, than what was done before. Real change. Not giving up. That was the message. Sorry, but some of us still here we will never give up. Outsourcing our jobs won't fix anything. Cheaper is never better. Yes, Nortel is not the first. Many mom-and-pop shops are gone also. Many other good companies are gone. Just move on? Sure, when I am told to leave. Until then, we do like everyone else does, do your job, do it well. Like every generation has. Stop being a whiner and do your part.
      • ^
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      Exactly.
      We need nationalism back in a big way.
      We need sanctioned protectionism for certain segments and circumstances.
      Let's look at Canuckistan for example.
      What a F***ing joke.
      Here we have a country overflowing in Natural Resources. Rather than set quotas, build refineries and TELL the rest of the world that here is what WE tthe people of Canada WILL get in exchange for our Natural Resources we have successive governments more worried about making sure signs are bilingual and tripping over themselves due to the disgrace of the Charter and new immigrants taking advantage of the dumb, naive Canuck system.
      Wake up Canada.
      Take care of your own.
      Look at guys like Manley, Cretin, Trudeau and it makes you ill.
      Harper, start turning the BOAT around!!!!
      I am not whining I am fighting BACK!!
      Bout time the rest of you sissies did the same thing rather than give up, and trumpet the ills of outsourcing.
      Canada has an extreme advantage that idiotic governments REFUSE to take example of because they are pre-occupied with stupid things.
      I suggest anybody get a majority government (we only need two parties).
      Get in, Lie (don't all politicians anyway) and make sweeping drastic changes.
      You get at least four years of it providing you have a majority don't you.
      We can undo the damage.
      Wake up Canuck Government. The people are in a perpetual zombie fog.
      • ^
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      next is water to go.
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      get rid of quebec. bye bye bilingualism. with a few years they will be broke, impoverished and desperate. send in the troops and make it all one unified Canada. no special constituiton. no special nation status. no more damn bilingualism. even the French hate quebecers.
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      Wow, so much hate. The problem with what 'Clint' suggests is that it will not benefit the majority of Canadians and it will protect those who feel entitled to sit on their butts and complain about all the things that aren't being handed to them on a platter. These people are like spoiled rich kids - they didn't earn the standard of living they enjoy, they inherited it and therefore they think it is an entitlement. A union mentality. Good luck with that folks.
      • ^
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      Oh yea that makes alot of sense...NOT.
      Check your history books and look at the surnames of ALL the soldiers who have died under the banner of Canada in all our wars. I would say 90 percent of them are of English, Scottish, Italian and Irish Descent. There were also Quebec names but the last real warring Quebecers did was at the plains of Abraham. So you think these guys died for idiots like turdo and his invention aptly named the charter of crap? You think these guys died for people to come into this country to change our laws and customs, wave the charter in hand, change laws, run to the human rights board, bring in their religious muslim fanaticism and more. I don't think so. Do you think these guys died to have politicans lose their minds and harass the general public with official bilingualism. Wrong Again. You could not be more wrong and insulting with that lame ass comment of yours. You must be a liberal, tree hugger, socialist, or a combination of thereof. Go out and talk to some construction guys like that or some guys down at the local legion, or in a bar for that matter.
      Yea. What you call hate I call Fed up. Canadians, don't live up to that bullshit handle of being tolerant and naive.
      • ^
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      And for what it is worth.
      Three words on my shit list. Multiculturalism, Tolerance and Open Borders.
      • ^
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      Way to go with this thread... surely we're close to the point where Godwins Law kicks in.
      • ^
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      SAFN,

      Hate being misquoted (or misunderstood).

      For info, I am as a hard-core entrepreneur as you will ever meet so ‘giving up’ is NOT my game. In addition, I am also as vehemently (and violently) opposed to GE/Jack Welch management style (and his greedy, self-serving, country-club management disciples) as you will EVER find. As I have stated before, it is guys like me that create jobs so guys like them can ship them to ‘lower-cost geographies’.

      Unfortunately, you are NOT in control of your future - they are; which is the reason why I became an entrepreneur.

      Everything you stated, as honestly and as beautifully as you did means little to the powers to be. According to fx (post just below yours, to be confirmed) it is ‘auf wiedersehen’ time. Not your fault….-- bb
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      SAFN,

      Hate being misquoted (or misunderstood). For info, I am as a hard-core entrepreneur as you will ever meet so ‘giving up’ is NOT my game. In addition, I am also as vehemently (and violently) opposed to GE/Jack Welch management style (and his greedy, self-serving, country-club management disciples) as you will EVER find. As I have stated before, it is guys like me that create jobs so guys like them can ship them to ‘lower-cost geographies’.

      Unfortunately, you are NOT in control of your future - they are; which is the reason why I became an entrepreneur.

      Everything you stated, as honestly and as beautifully as you did means little to the powers to be. According to fx (post just below yours, to be confirmed) it is ‘auf wiedersehen’ time. Not your fault….-- bb
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      Meetings in Munich last week were positive. Likely acquisition of the whole Co in the next 3 weeks.
      • ^
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      Is this referred to NSN meeting in Munich? Is this true or another rumour?
      • ^
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      Recreating a great (German) company? -- bb
      • ^
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      Well, here we are. At the 11th hour, the ship is sinking. The wolves at the door. The vultures are circling up above. What do you expect those that are left behind to do? Give up? Stop working? As one of those still with the company, I agree with the criticism. I have lots of it of my own. The stone cold reality is that we don't have a choice but to continue to fight. Maybe until the end. Maybe not. The alternative to fighting, to continue working, doing our jobs, is unacceptable. We are better than that. Nortel pioneered the digital revolution that we all enjoy. No one can argue that. We need to stop bashing, and start again to be proud of those companies that helped to build the modern world. Where would we be without the Nortels, the GMs, the Fords, the Chryslers of the world? All I know is that the future is ahead of us. Good or bad. If Nortel fails, it is a collective failure and a lose-lose situation for everyone. North Americans need to collectively wake up and support our home-grown industries, or we all will face the wrath of irrelevancy and unemployment.
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      Good or bad. If Nortel fails, it is a collective failure and a lose-lose situation for everyone.
      -----
      re
      Nope
      Sir, you try to make the public responsible of Nortel's failures and Nortel's frauds.
      Nortel is $300 mill market cap company now for a reason.
      The reason is that stock market has spoken!
      Stock market decided that at this point in time Nortel business is not acceptable.
      Nortel's accounting books show year after year net loss.
      and what about shareholders?
      They invested $380 bill in NT stock as some late articles posted!
      I used simple math to show anyone how many average shareholders were fooled by Nortel.
      answer is 30 mill investors invested $10 k on average and lost all of it!
      It's shocking, isn't it?
      and if I can add
      there is no logic to invest more in the business like Nortel!
      No logic Sir!
      Nortel going BK is not a loss! It's a necessary adjustment!
      Nortel has not been able to restructure itself to be a normal, profitable, competitive company!
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      Dear SAFN,

      You sound a bit depressed so let me try and cheer you up by commenting on several of your comments:

      1. “Where would we be without the Nortels, the GMs, the Fords, the Chryslers of the world?”
      – The same place we were after Compaq, DEC, Unisys, Data General, Control Data, Amdahl, AST Research, Novell, etc. etc. etc. It is called Darwinism and it really, really works. Ugly when it happens (seen our ancestors?); beautiful when completed (see: Angelina Jolie).

      2. “All I know is that the future is ahead of us. Good or bad.”
      – The future is what you make of it. Nothing more, nothing less. The best way to the future is to get out of your (our) comfort zone.

      3. “North Americans need to collectively wake up and support our home-grown industries, or we all will face the wrath of irrelevancy and unemployment.”
      – North Americans (myself included) need to get out of that ‘self-entitlement’ mode we have been in for several decades. Collectively, we need to get off the gravy train we called ‘a job’ and focus on building careers. See my comment in #2.

      Looking back in history, my grandfather was pissed when, after 40 years, all they gave him was a gold watch; my father was pissed when, after risking his life many times, all they gave him was a (gold-plated) medal; We need to stop expecting , that way we don’t get disappointed. We should focus on creating value as opposed to expecting rewards. A job is the worst thing to aspire to….--bb
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      Me and my 315,000 shares vote for.... Angelina! Yes, I vote for less talk about... what was his name? Oh, yeah.. Mike Z... and begin a discussion about the wonderful consequences of Darwinism!

      : )

      don
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      Ok
      I found in Taylor's article numbers I was looking for
      Nortel's Pension Fund in total
      He says $8 bill.
      Half of it was invested in stocks or in other words $4 bill was invested in stocks
      Stocks lost half of it's value on average
      If Nortel was lucky to lose only half of its investment that is $2 bill
      Plus 2007 Pension deficit of $1.1 bill gives us new total deficit of $3.1 bill.
      It could be even worse than that if
      Nortel investment lose more than half of its value
      and more if the total Pension Fund was bigger than $8 bill estimated in that article.
      here is the link
      ======
      RBC points out that Nortel's pension plan was underfunded by $1.1-billion at the end of 2007. A little more than half of the $8-billion plan was invested in stocks.
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RT...

      =======
      re
      Question to all of the posters.
      Didn't I estimate that Pension deficit is more than $3 bill now?
      Why so many analysts estimate it at $2 bill?
      Read my posts to get the clue if my estimations were correct.
      I still believe that total pension Fund is more than $8 bill at this point.
      in other words
      the total pension deficit may be as high as $4 bill and it has to be adress immediately, not in next 5 years as some posters pointed it out here.
      Wrong
      each year and right away to prevent the pensioners checks be in mail each month.
      • ^
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      You are INCORRECT! The pension deficit is the actuarial estimate given payments to current and future pensioners, while considering current and future contributions over a 20 year period probably. Do you know how many pensioners there are? It's likely way less than 30K people who would probably bring in at most $50K/year...at worst this would equal a $1.5B yearly obligation...likely way less!

      Please stop spreading LIES.

      If they go bankrupt, what happens to all those pensioners...the taxpayers won't be bailing them out. They'll have to rely on CPP and OAS or go back to work!
      • ^
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      It's likely way less than 30K people who would probably bring in at most $50K/year...at worst this would equal a $1.5B yearly obligation...likely way less!

      Please stop spreading LIES.
      =====
      re
      look at your own numbers Sir.
      If you are correct about $1.5 bill a year estimation pension fund should be as big as $15 bill with 10% return of investment each year just to sustain obligations for next 20 years as you say...
      Boy o Boy
      You are so brave and so ignorant to simple math.
      yet you say I am spreading lies not you!
      I gotcha!
      in other words as I know you won't understand my first explanation
      Nortel's Pension fund is only $8 bill.
      How the Fund can pay $1.5 bill each and every year in the next 20 years as you say from the total of $8 bill now?
      How?
      btw
      Total now is less than $5 bill, that's why Pension deficit is estimated at $3 bill. It's not funny, is it?
      Nortel has to show a plan how they will keep the Pension Fund in tact with current deficit levels.
      The rules and regulations have not changed yet and they say, pay back the money or go BK.
      As many smart posters wrote here, that is the real reason Nortel has to sell the best assets to cover up that deficit.
      Are you feeling better now?
      I hope so.
      • ^
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      Their yearly pension obligation is likely WAY less than 1.5 Billion...just looked at 2007 annual report and it seems to be $893M. The total pension liability for 2007 was substantially less than in 2006. The total current payroll for NT is likely only 3 Billion if 30K employees make an average of $100K....it's likely less than that. So, I don't think their pension obligations are going to bankrupt them.
      • ^
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      Nortel pension fund'a deficit is garanteed by the government if the company goes bankrupt
      • ^
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      Only the Canadian province of Ontario has a fund that guarantees payment of certain defined benefit pensions in Ontario, subject to prescribed limitations. Called the "Pension Benefit Guarantee Fund" (PBGF), it is a program paid for by employers with defined benefit pension plans through an annual assessment based on the number of Ontario plan members and the plan’s financial situation. In situations where an employer is insolvent and there is an underfunding in the plan on its wind-up, the PBGF will top up the benefits received under the plan by the plan’s Ontario members, within prescribed limits. If money is paid out of the PBGF, the Ontario pension regulator is given a lien and charge over the assets of the employer in an amount equal to that paid out of the PBGF plus interest
      • ^
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      It's kind of telling isn't,that is to see an 8 digit man pleading with the 5 & 6 digit lowers to make up for 7& 8 digit level blunders!
      • ^
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      It isn't time to turn the lights off. It's time to let NT get it's act together, which it can do, and become a relevant industry player once more.
      • ^
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      Unfortunately, these are the facts, plain and simple. There are those that do not like the truth and have personally attacked broadbandbill, protosphere, yes4aapl and myself for using critical thought to explain these failures.

      Let me begin by saying that I am a loyal Nortel employee. I love this company and the people that work with me. My coworkers are some of the best and brightest in the industry. It is for this reason that I am most outraged at how Nortel has performed in the past. Not because of the employees (at least the ones I know) but because of poor leadership, again and again.

      I, like so many other NT employees, find AAN to be a valuable resource to share our opinions that would otherwise be ignored. Mark you have done a decent job help keep all of us informed. For that reason I found it to be distasteful when others launched personal attacks against you.

      The most recent example was a poster who accused Mr. Evans of uncontrollably urinating while writing a blog post that merely linked to an analyst's negative expectation of Nortel. I naturally found this to be outrageous and after I pointed out this flaw in the poster's argument the poster later responded with threats of physical violence to "knock me down" and "knock me out". This is not debate. This is bullying to suppress the facts and news about Nortel.

      I came to AAN to find a neutral news source. Like many I had grown tired of the company's continued disinformation tactics even against its own employees. As recently as this year we had an employee ask why NT stock price was so low. The only answer they got back was that it was media bias and "propaganda". This is no way to treat employees and insults their intelligence.

      I want Nortel to survive. I want Nortel to succeed. But the way to succeed is not to cover up failures, facts or the truth. The way to succeed is to learn from mistakes. Unfortunately there are many who act as mere cheerleaders, turn a blind eye to mis-management all to pump NT and maybe increase their now-worthless shares slightly.

      I carry no ill-will towards anyone and wish everyone the best.

      Desk Jockey
      • ^
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      Let me begin by saying that I am a loyal Nortel employee. I love this company and the people that work with me. My coworkers are some of the best and brightest in the industry. It is for this reason that I am most outraged at how Nortel has performed in the past. Not because of the employees (at least the ones I know) but because of poor leadership, again and again.
      -----
      re
      I would say so about myself and I don't think I would get many positive responses to that.
      Why Nortel is so transparent in lies, misguiding investors, reporting false numbers and expectations?
      The last example was single digit growth in 2008. It was a lie!
      • ^
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      DJ,

      Amen! I have said it before, it is gents like you that are the real world-classers. Continued success--bb
      • ^
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      dj, i must admit, well put. perhaps this is where our differences meet.

      on a side note, i didn't actually refer to urination in that comment, but nevermind the attention to details. the important thing is that i did appologize for that.

      oh and i never intended anything that i said to be "physically" threatening (honestly i haven't got a clue how i can possibly use physical violence on you with my fingers on a computer keyboard). it was a mere symbolic reference to boxing (knockdown, knockout, weight class, etc. you know the sport. in the olympics or ppv occasionally).

      cheers
      • ^
      • v
      Don't worry notafan, I never harbored any ill-will or bad feelings toward you. In fact I have no resentment against anyone on this board, even those that have viciously attacked me. (Not referring to you)

      To be honest I don't worry about you as you show maturity. The ones I worry about are the ones who spout childish comments and stick to their singular line of attacks even when all sense of logic has been lost upon them.

      Regards,

      Desk Jockey
      • ^
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      DJ: Well Said. I believe a lot of fellow NT employee’s following AAN and this forum concur with your thoughts and comments.

      On a side note: Mark, I think a better question is "Who will turn Out the Lights"??
      • ^
      • v
      They probably have a Black Belt Project going right now to determine who will turn out the lights. ( and another to tell them when )
      • ^
      • v
      Don't forget the six sigma studs ..er duds..on each black belt.
      They'll get promotions and a raise soon. God Forbid the joint sells. The black belts will probably be knighted.
      • ^
      • v
      This blog has really turned into a speculative 24X7 rehash.
      All we get now are rumours, speculation and bad news.
      NT have absolutely NO good news to give out so this is what you get.
      They have no good news on TV, they have no good news on the radio, they have no good news in the newspapers and they have no good at their GIS. The only good news is on their internal blog.
      Anybody working at NT check that out yet?
      The only thing that gets commented on here is bad news, because that is all there is and that in itself is pathetic.
      Nortel should immediately fire anybody making over 100k per year.
      No excuses.
      No package.
      No Severance.
      Outsource the work that is left by the void.
      Maybe to Nigeria?
      Surely somebody who has been making coin like that for a long time will have a good nest egg for a rainy day?
      If not tough luck.
      • ^
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      Oh, and Protosphere just spews the same stuff every blog...$20 buying opportunity, contradictions, illegal departure from Motorola etc.

      GET SOME NEW MATERIAL DUDE!

      Broadband, you are correct I am not an employee but a long suffering investor with 2900 shares at a cost of < $10/share...better average than 80% of current investors. If needed I'm going to ride this baby to 0 since it's almost there...but things can change quickly as we have all witnessed in the last 3 months.
      • ^
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      SHSiF-2004,

      If you only knew the level of relationships I sacrificed to get the top dogs at NT to listen to both experience and logic you would think I was totally nuts, which may indeed still be the case.

      No one on this planet hates (read: HATES) Cisco more than yours truly because I KNOW (read: I REALLY, REALY KNOW) what a crappy products of a company that is. However, what they lack in engineering they more than make up for in marketing, positioning, sales, strategy, etc,; all things that Nortel’s management is absolutely clueless about.

      This turnaround would have been a walk in the park had NT’s management understood the basic rules of engagement in the Telco sector but they didn’t (and still don’t). Much smarter and more insightful people than me also tried, without success. For info, if there is a fire in the theater I have been conditioned to scream ‘FIRE!’; it is the only way to save lives.

      It’s not the fact that they don’t know what they don’t know (we are all equally ignorant about different things); it’s the fact they are NOT even REMOTELY interested in learning and/or understanding what they don’t know and why. Denial; the fifth (and the most powerful) force in the universe at work…- - bb
      • ^
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      Yes, I would like to see some return on my investment, but I'm far better off than people who've sunk more money than me into NT and far better of than the future unemployed workers, like yourself, if NT goes under.

      It doesn't look like there is going to be a coup d'état, so why not accept this and try to make things work. I hope all Nortel employees aren't as negative as you.

      Why don't you develop a smartphone called the "Nortelly" and compete with RIM and Apple. You guys are supposed to be North America's largest phone maker or is that an old label?
      • ^
      • v
      here is the correct URL to Fabrice Taylor's Column
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RT...
     
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