Doomsday Scenarios Emerging

"what my problems are that mark reports some facts, even multiple times, and other facts not at all. let me put this like you're a three year old: "your daddy was in an accident" and "your daddy was in an accident, but he's okay" send out messages with two very different tones, though both may be valid facts."

And not a few people just keep asking for second opinions until they hear what they want to hear.

The word "okay" is a highly subjective term to a three year old, I expect an octagenerian's is definition of the word regarding, say, their health is quite different.

How about this as a scenario? A company "X" buys up all Nortel's debt at 40 cents on the dollar, then forces the company into bankruptcy. Total cost, around $2B. In reorg, X owns the company, they get rid of excess real estate, people, pension obligations. Then X takes Nortel's cash, around $2B, and runs the remaining businesses for max cash flow, netting a big profit. Possible?

Also, the rumor I heard was that Ericsson was going to buy the carrier piece as a favor to AT&T, Verizon, Bell, and other carrier customers.

But who knows, except Mike Z, who will make out like a bandit no matter what and then blame his screwup on the bad economy.

Have to say this about this site.
People who actually work at NT have their own internal blog that they check out infrequently, so my inside sources at CDMA tell me.
The difference between the blatant propoganda, lies and deletion of facts and rumour from that site as opposed to the real time, "tell it how it is view" from this site is astounding.
Apparently the NT internal blog is frequented by execs or managers waiting for or guaranteed golden parachutes, those who still think there is a future in enterprise and sales/marketing people who are totally out of touch with reality. Full of eternal optimists and cheerleaders apparently. Apparently the differences between the two sites is really quite stunning, comical and remarkable.

The inside money is played on the following: Nortel is in close negotiations with Nokia/Siemens. M&A teams have been in Germany all week. NT is in much worse shape than the Market knows and will be bought by, merge with Nokia/Siemens, or file bankruptcy as early as this week. This will be what Z-boy talks about on Tuesday in his worldwide GIS. Given a 1 year downturn, NT will burn through its cash before the midpoint of 2009. We all know that the global downturn run more than 12 months.

What happen to packages in a bankruptcy or Nokia/Siemens scenarios?

Regards,
Waiting for a Parting Gift

No. You were wrong.

Nokia-Siemens negotiations with NT confirmed. Deal not closed. NSN wants larger number of layoffs prior to acquisition. NT talking to Ericsson now. NT wants a higher price but cant get it.

Too funny. Confirmed by whom?

NT will go bankrupt but not in 2009. It can survive until early 2010. If there is no business unit sale, then it will go BK then.

Its tough for anyone to buy NT. Nokia is a rumour. Layoffs have started, some I am told are being asked to defer until next year. Not a good sign.

Perhaps you can explain to us how you think Nortel will burn through more than $2 Billion in cash in about 6 months?

I would be very surprised with this transaction given that Nokia has about $2.177 Billion USD in cash, an amount less than Nortel's current cash balance.

It is just simple math
Nortel has to cut about 8000 jobs in total to come closer to profitability and reality
I estimated they would need around $1.6 bill for that round of restructuring.
How about that?
or if you are still not convinced
what about Pension Fund deficit?
I estimated that they are around $3 bill in the red or more, I say or more!
Answer that one Tongue in your chick, Sir

No one should be surprised that you would invent a totally fictional situation in support of your claims. Perhaps you should read page 58 of their Q3 10Q document to get your numbers correct, rather than the clearly false information (as usual) you are spewing here.

On this page in the 10Q, it states that the cost of restructuring the 1,300 positions would be approx. $130 Million, which equates to an $100,000 average per employee. Your fictional math, which you call simple, equates to DOUBLE that amount, or $200,000 per employee. You have also stretched the number from 1,300 to 8,000 people yet offer nothing in support as to why they would need to restructure 8,000 positions.

So, your simple math exercise is now shown to be a completely fabricated piece of crap.

On Pension Fund deficit, companies are allowed 5 years to make up the balance, correct?

And as for your attack on my name, stick it where the sun don't shine Princess. You are the one repeatedly creating lies here.

You have also stretched the number from 1,300 to 8,000 people yet offer nothing in support as to why they would need to restructure 8,000 positions.
=============
re
8000 positions is not only my invention. You can find articles with analysts estimations of 5-8000 job cuts needed right away.
Why?
New orders show it!
New orders decline as fast as $500 mill a quarter.
CDMA declined not with 3% speed as Nortel expected but 30%
Costs are always higher than Nortel expects, and savings? what savings?
Nortel supposed to be profitable looong time ago when Owens restructured Nortel!
and what about Pension Plan deficit you don't understand?
More of your diversion plays?
You cannot play your stupid games with me. And when you call me a liar you should provide examples Sir.
If you don't understand simple math or simple logic you will accuse anyone of posting lies. But it's your problem not mine.
One thing is sure. You were wrong about NT stock and company for very long time so why do you think I lied if my NT targets are reached each and every year?
When did you create Nortel_will_survive alias? 3 years ago?
NT was $36 at that time
Today NT market cap is $300 mill! It does not look like Nortel_will_survive!
and as Duncan said.
All the doomsday predictions professional analysts wrote are used by competition to get Nortel's customers. What Nortel should do about that? Deny BK?
or just do it quick!
I think, using BK sooner would convince some customers to stay and it would save many jobs!

In bankruptcy, no packages need to be paid as part of layoffs. In an acquisitoin, packages are likely.

If that is true that is bad news for NT.
Correct me if I am wrong but did not Nokia/Siemens report a terrible quarter and announce a bunch of layoffs?
The sick buying the blind?
And worse if bankruptcy comes to fruition in the near term..Wow..I guess you can expect alot of people in turn going bankrupt and going on welfare.
We'll see if you are right.

You are correct. The Nokia-Siemens JV announced ~1250 layoffs recently but said they were part of a "previously announced" cost cutting plan:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gikbBZ4iha31OD6-LMhvDmU8v0ZAD94CSCFG1

To my knowledge no analyst to date has ever set a target price of zero, thus I find Mark Sue’s target as a double-meaning message. Zero starts with the letter ‘Z’, which I find very cleaver; so I came up with yet another poem for Mr. Sue…--bb

Mr. Sue is at it again,
Setting the price but not as a fan,
Shareholder value he says goes down to zero,
Secretly, it’s what he thinks of a Macedonian hero.

He says no, not this time or this place,
Just trying to save some value and maybe his face,
Trying all things; too little too late,
Like one that died too early, called The Great.

bb - Don't quit your day job. ROFL.

ANW,

Still at it, and loving it…--bb

Is there any latest news about sale of Metro Ethernet business?

Two reasons why MEN won't sell:
1) Why buy it now when it gets cheaper every day as the stock price sinks?
2) Nobody wants to take on the risk of touching Nortel and all it's problems with a ten foot pole in this uncertain economic environment. There IS value in Nortel, but it is still not clear if that value can be extracted.

Again your assessments are for the most part correct but you left it open for some circumstancial exceptions that could, I could say could negate your comment.
Here they are.
I've been led to believe that NT has now been split into three distinct Entities or LOB. Carrier Networks, MEN and Enterprise.
If NT stock for some miraculous reason starts to remain on an upward ramp your comment dies since interested parties will have to act fast based on the NT recovery. I agree this scenario is unlikely.
If NT on a whole starts getting more contracts and wins (hard in the current environment) of course the balance sheet improves, the stock goes up and selling off a LOB is more likely. This is interposed with my comment above. The significant wins need to come from all three lines of businesses. Again not likely right now.
Finally, the most likely scenario is that NT package off CN with MEN (for all we know they may already be doing that although they have not said so). That makes the sale of CN/MEN more likely to happen sooner than later.
Who knows.
You are right, the business may very well not sell and simply disintegrate or be picked up when the company is worth a cup of coffee.

The latest news is that there is NO news.
Just keep reading the papers, watching the TV, listening to the radio and checking your relevant URL.
They'll tell you all you need to know before anybody else does.

While no one likes to be pessimistic or talk of the worse, I can tell you that the "doomsday scenario" (even if that term is a big sensationalist) is something on the minds of many NT employees.

You hear it at lunch time, over a coffee break or even as idle chat. People are worried. Worried about their family, their future and their hard earned pension. Even if bankruptcy is not just around the corner, this current economic downturn has changed the situation. All bets are off. Since Nortel was forced to revise 3rd quarter estimates back in September, the economy has gotten considerably worse. How will this affect Nortel?

Nortel does have options. The exec. teams knows that the cash burn issue is their #1 priority, which has resulting in spending freezes across the board. This may buy some time. But real restructuring and change also costs money - how will this affect NT's ability to adapt?

At this point there are too many variables to say anything for sure - but the signs do not look positive.

Ok, lets cool it. You have 17 comments on this article already. I'm sorry but I can't help but to feel that you and a handful of others are poluting AAN

I don't remember if I have posted it before
Why would you use so many IDs?


aliases

* abc
* coverdrive
* nbody
* HOOAH!
* coverdrive
* kaiser
* Corona
* EarnEntreCredit
* fdd
* gfdgdfgfd
* Go private
* Venu
* neuro
* ali
* London
* Lee
* from the law
* Dr. Dib
* seo
* Ramki
* coverdrive
* Sathish
* pune_bikez
* cruise from Canada
* Lokyz
* JoJo
* Charles Ulmer Farley
* krish
* OKS
* illegal
* NA
* aaaah!
* Jimmy
* phil
* alex
* Anon
* Томас
* Nunuv Yurbiz
* Bella
* C
* tina
* abc
* J
* unanimous
* La L'Heureux
* Arsenalfan
* Mike
* Mark
* haha
* XCRunner
* hot_payoyoy
* 과객
* Anonymous
* Business
* billy
* rhodydog
* nt_man
* wing

Actually, I can't explain it because all thsee names aren't mine. I've only written stuff twice and they were both on AAN, as nt_man. I'm not Mike or Mark or god knows what that one is saying.

It's okay

Forgetfulness often accompanies multiple personality disorder or schizophrenia.

nt_man aliases?
He denied to use them.
Can we ask Mark to check if those aliases shown by Disqus are correct?
http://disqus.com/people/4adcca49b3b1e5a08ac202f5d5a9e688/
Mark is it possible Disqus shows wrong list of aliases?
Can you check nt_man claim that he did not use those aliases?
Clint admitted using all his aliases in a vulgar way.
I don't have aliases because I am proud of my Yes4AAPL which is more than 5 years old with perfect predictions about NT and AAPL.

I would be delighted if some can check. This is my 5th ever DISQUS post and all of them as nt_man in AAN.

Desk Jockey, I am seriously being honest and I do not need your sarcasm

Looks like I've now got another session/ID for my comment above... Regardless, my claim still holds. I have been using the same browser on the same computer on the same network for all my posts.

I've figured it out.... I've used used a random email (abc@abc.com) in hopes to hide my identity (except for the post above) and that resulted in attaching my post along with other people who have posted with abc@abc.com. yes4aapl, I will be using my real email from now on. (hopefully my identity will be kept private)

Sorry, it looks like I'm polluting AAN myself. It'll truly be my last post for a while.

I've figured it out.... I've used used a random email (abc@abc.com) in hopes to hide my identity
-----
re
So good to hear your memory is back!
Cheers

Thank you for your honesty. And I am sorry for my sarcasm. I just do not enjoy being attacked without reason.

It's because stupidity has many faces.

i had a theory about you reflecting yourself in your name calling but apparently its not a theory anymore because you proved it.

and i think you proved nt_man's statement about you polluting aan as well. well done mate.

Not always

There wont be a turn around plan if the media doesnt stop bashing Nortel.

it isn't the media driving Nortel but the other way around

If all it took were media bashing to cease then I'd put Mike Zafirovski on American Idol in a heartbeat to reverse all Nortel's problems. Stop minimizing the seriousness of the challenges.

who will believe the market analyst? these guys bring the crisis first and want to destory more and more company. They have done that. They want more.... Pls. believe yourself instead of these looks "smart" analyst.

Mark,

Thanks for all your work.

Mark,

On a somewhat related note here’s a link yesterday’s NW article on the dubious relationship between Nortel and Microsoft:

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2008/111308-microsoft-nortel-future.html

bb

Dear AAN readers (and posters!)

Two points I want to weigh in on:

1) Please stop slamming Mark Evans as being biased against Nortel. Yes, he has put up some pretty negative stuff, but that's been an accurate reflection of reality in the last year. It is always appropriate to wonder about the impartiality of a lot of Nortel commentators. Sell-side analysts can be conflicted (defending old positions) as can their firms (although very few brokerage firms are taking positions long or short in Nortel these days -- there are better places for them to make money.) Portfolio managers usually "talk their book" meaning that if they own NT they only say good things and if they are short they only say the bad. Even theoretically impartial industry analysts may have axes to grind. And they all make tons of money from talking about Nortel, and where income is, conflicts follow.

But Mark is a guy who repeatedly discloses that he has no stock positions in NT of any kind. I have known him for years and I believe him 100%. He has a real job and runs AAN -- which is the single best source of news on Nortel available -- for you folks in his "spare time." And in return gets accused of being biased.

CUT IT OUT.

Flame me or other posters, or point out stories he has missed or errors he has made -- but stop impugning his motives please.

2) More on topic to the article about bondholders: most retaili investors and company followers hear a lot of news/noise from the equity side of the ledger. Both sell and buy side equity money managers go on TV and publish research and post on blogs. But the debt guys keep a much lower profile. That doesn't mean they are stupid and wrong. The fcat that NT debt is running at roughly $0.30 on the dollar is a hugely important piece of information for those who care about the common shares and those who care about the company's long term future.

In my Financial Post column I have been talking about how critical the debt markets are as a leading indicator of where the share price might be going. The debt guys have been right so far -- ignore at your peril.

http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/columnists/story.html?id=bcb7bb04-885e-49f4-824b-c361209f8599

Amen Duncan.

The sarcastic tone of those attacking Mr. Evans for merely reporting the facts on Nortel (on a blog called "All About Nortel", no less) was reaching a boiling point. There is no reason for people to be attacking Mr. Evans for reporting the news. It's a classic case of killing the messenger and reflects more on the person doing the attacking then who is being attacked.

I have had enough of it but will not stop reading AAN because I enjoy the updates and of course, this affects me as well.

i have no problem with mark reporting facts. what my problems are that mark reports some facts, even multiple times, and other facts not at all. let me put this like you're a three year old: "your daddy was in an accident" and "your daddy was in an accident, but he's okay" send out messages with two very different tones, though both may be valid facts.

so that should turn you off of me somewhat (finally for god sake). but before i let you stop harrasing me, lets move on to my problems with you.

though i agree that mark reports facts, aan being a blog and all, i belive mark also writes his opinions, questions, and even rumors that are way out there sometimes, and thats okay. i can accept it, though i may not always agree with him (you smilin' mark?). now what frustrates me is that you are generalizing and claiming that mark is "reporting the facts". mark's said that roese is a good guy. well i dont know him personally so i can't say. but did the world come together to agree that roese is a good guy? did this become a universal truth? maybe someone just forgot to tell me about it...
or what about the time when mark posted a rumor about ibm swooping in for nortel? did he disclose his source? did ibm end up buying nortel? is this all true because YOU're tell me that mark reports the facts?

hope my words get through to you. can't be bothered to do it again so you know

mark, must be nice to have a fan (not me obviously ;) ). you know that i got nothing against you personally. appologies on the wetting yourself thing :), but i'm sure you understood what i mean, not like this guy

i have no problem with mark reporting facts. what my problems are that mark reports some facts, even multiple times, and other facts not at all.
notafan
===================
re
I don't thing AAN would look better if Mark took your advice with your tongue in the chick and polluted this blog with all small positive info_details like my example
"Mike Z found $10 bill in the desk's drawer and sent it to B Owens. Further investigation showed it was $10 F Dunn left there leaving the office in a harry so Owens sent that money to F D.
What a nice guys Nortel's CEO are, right?"

Let's focus on the big picture.
The big picture is represented by NT chart.
The big picture is painted by melting cash position and cash flow negative for years.
Big picture is $4.5 bill in debt vs $0.3 bill market cap
Big picture is that Nortel has been looking for a buyer of the best assets and found none yet
The big picture is $500 mill less in new orders for Q2 and $400 mill less for Q3. How low 2009 revenue would be?
Big picture is job cuts after job cuts, and the revolving doors of senior manager positions.
Analysts setting ZERO targets and talking about possibility of going BK is a big factor which should not be neglected by AllAbout Nortel blog and Mark did report that here.
Thank you Mark Good job. Stay focused. Don't take seriously the diversion tactics of well known "Nortel's optimists" posting on all boards for years. Anyone who believed them and invested in NT lost their money.
That's another Big Picture

This isn't Yahoo Finance or CNN Money, it's a BLOG. Blogs are for news AND/OR commentary. If you want more objectivity, go to yahoo finance and look for the news headlines on Nortel.

A blog is a great place to express opinion. However, if someone manufactures false information trying to present it as facts, then I will challenge that if I see it. I understand that many posters here want to see Nortel fail. Some have invested years of effort to see that happen using this blog (and others) as their soap box.

This blog also has an effective business plan. Negative information will attract more traffic which yields an increase in revenue from advertising impressions on the home page. I'm OK with that and good for Mark for having an effective business plan in how to run this blog.

Gotta agree with the responses here, I'll admit the negativity can sometimes be sickening it is not the cause of the real issues. While media will naturally have a bias (cough *CBC* cough) if you think they have destroyed NT then you overestimate their power.

Will Nortel fail because of somebody's blog or comments on the blog? If you think it is possible, then start another blog to counter this blog.

Company fails because of bad management not blogs. Wake up!

No kiddin.
The media (television, print, radio) and analysts have always been brutally tough on NT. If people really think however that is the cause of their current problems or that it will determine their future you should wake up and smell the ammonia.

nope
I don't agree with your opinion about that
I have been watching analysts' recommendations for NT for years and I found out only one or two Bearish analysts on NT in the past.
Most targets were up up from the traded price so they all were optimistic about NT stock direction.
It was Mike Z who sold them BS about the turn around!
Or the BS about single digit growth in 2008
Lets talk about that Sir.
Why do you avoid that?
Why do you use so many aliases accusing other of obsessive posting?
Are those your names?


aliases

* Realist
* SexyBeast
* Sexy Beast
* Plastered
* plastered
* Limeoid.
* Hogan
* Daniel
* JoeFriday
* Clint
* Eli
Why ?

F**k you.
how bout that.

Now we have confirmation that we should ignore anything you post. How bout that?

Thank you, yes4aapl.

And F*** you too.

At it again Clint.. When cornered you provide an insight into your real character. Get a life!! or at the very least have the courage of your convictions. Thanks yes4aapl

thank you, thats what i've been sayiing all along. so many of these people seem to consider aan as some kind of a collection of all reports on nortel. blog is a blog, i agree

Well personally I would not tell you to "go away" since that tends to lead to people just reading what they want to believe. (And this is Mark's blog, if anyone is going to tell someone to go away it should be him) And after all disagreement leads to healthy discourse.

I think some of us are missing the fact that we are intelligent adults and can discern the reality from the information. And if we are wrong then fine; and we go on.

I like AAN because I don't agree with some posts but those same posts make me go back and say hmm...

God knows the times I've been wrong in my life.

Keep it up, Mark. And thanks.

To be honest that was a little long but I got the gist of it. Since you seem to be inkling for a rebuttal, I'll give you one.

1. I am not harassing you any more than you are "harassing" me. I am merely stating what I believe.
2. I do not overgeneralize. When I referred to "the facts", I was talking about just that - the facts. The fact that many analysts believe bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. The fact that bond holders are not looking on Nortel favorably. You seemed to be angry at the reporting of these pieces of information, which is odd because one should not be angered by the truth. Instead, one should embrace it.
3. AAN does post what I would consider to be rumors from time to time. However this has no bearing on my original argument. If Mark posts something that is demonstratively false, I will take him to task just as I have with you.

god... you just don't get it do you? take a look at my original comment and the comment i replied to. the fact is that these TWO analysists are suggesting that the bankruptcy is a distinct possibility. no other analysists have published their analysis suggesting likewise in my knowledge so far. thats what buyonbadnews is saying, and i joked about how mark only posted about these two analysis. you're generalizing in trying to prove that you don't overgeneralize. and you just keep ignoring whats been said with valid explanations and state the opposite with no explanation. that is very frustrating.

and with all the logic, reason, and insults under the rug i've used on you, you still think you took me to task? sure.... fine... whatever... you win.

ignorance is truly bliss i suppose

If you look at your comments and read them aloud you will find that instead of reason there is raw impetuous emotion driving the words. This is not logic, this is anger, and worst of all it is anger because someone did not agree with your view point.

its unfortunate you still don't seem to understand. and that you just keep defining other peoples thought process and emotions for them. let me make this clear. i have not been involved in this discussion with a single bit of emotion. perhaps it was you who got too emotional, perceiving my comments as been driven from anger. and it was you who disagreed with my view point in the first place. and i'm not the one resulting to a personal and irrelavent attacks just to get the final words out.

i guarentee that you'll reply to this again. but i've proven my point (i don't care if you didn't get it) and won't be wasting any of my time with this pointless conversation. grow up

+1. Well put.

I smell bankruptcy protection once the Q4 books are closed.

I say that these posts are targeted by people shorting the stock .. words like "dooms day emerging" only adds unneeded nervousness and will make some fool out there some money because he shorted NT today.

..agreed calling it 'doomsday' is a bit hyperbolic

PIPPIN: I didn't think it would end this way.

GANDALF: End? No, the journey doesn't end here. Death is just another path, one that we all must take. The grey rain-curtain of this world rolls back, and all turns to silver glass, and then you see it.

PIPPIN: What? Gandalf? See what?

GANDALF: White shores, and beyond, a far green country under a swift sunrise.

PIPPIN: Well, that isn't so bad.

GANDALF: No. No, it isn't.”

What a nice touch, telco.

Thank you.

Speaking of bonds, who holds the majority of Nortel's performance bonds? (Instruments used to guarantee and back multi-year billion dollar sale and maintenance contracts).

How much did AAN (Cisco, the CIA) pay biased media to mention Nortel along with fallen, corrupt giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?

AAN "pay" media to make up a story?

Sounds like we have a candidate for crackpot comment of the month.

UPDATE 1-NYSE kills sub-penny halt rule, re-list 91 stocks
Fri Nov 14, 2008 10:43am EST Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (0) [-] Text [+] Market News
Oil falls to around $57 on stock markets, data
Stocks cut losses after sentiment data | Video
Retail sales fall by record 2.8 percent in October | Video
More Business & Investing News... Featured Broker sponsored link
Trading will never be the same.* NYSE to relist 91 stocks, including Fannie, Freddie

* Stocks below $1.05 will no longer go to Arca

* NYSE to round sub-penny quotes to nearest penny

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange will no longer halt trading in stocks that fall below $1.05, allowing the exchange to relist some 91 securities, including U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Nortel Networks Corp (NT.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

The exchange's parent, NYSE Euronext (NYX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), said it received approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to relist the securities, starting Monday.

The move eliminates the "sub-penny trading halt" rule that bumps depressed stocks to NYSE's small-cap Arca platform. As of next week, the NYSE will round quotes that trade in increments below one cent to the nearest penny. (Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)

Finally some good news. But this was probably expected, with the current economic crisis the NYSE probably didn't want to exclude a lot of companies from its exchange. Thankfully NT benefits from this move.

When a company lays off 65K tech workers you have to imagine that a few of them will be pissed off and willing to spend a few minutes a day slamming their former employer.

The sad thing is the formerly optimized Nortel employees are probably the lucky ones. If you get out of here (NT) with severance your golden. The worry isn't if we're going to get laid-off anymore... The worry now is what happens if you don't get laid-off (I'm not being sarcastic).

People are begging to be included in the 1300. We've been told there are no volunteers allowed for the layoff -- your either one of them or your not.

Not good if you are white and english speaking.
Especially in Ottawa.
Good Luck.

So you mean if you are white and English speaking in Ottawa you're fucked?

Or the opposite?

I'm not being flip. I really'd like to know what you mean. And probably some other people.

Well here you go.
If you are white and english speaking it is very difficult.
Look at the visible minority hiring quotas.
Look at the official bilingualism rules of law in Canada, especially in Ontario, and especially in Ottawa.
Look at how the government hands out refugee status payments, welfare, social assisted housing and money encouraging foreigners to come in here and have as many kids as they want knowing the social programs will pay for them. Walk into a doctors clinic in ontario and you'll see the reality of the situation.
This is the way it is.
Wake up.

I wonder what your agenda is. You seem to spew hatred at every junction. This blog is about Nortel, not about how you have some beef with minorities/foreigners/the bogeyman or the government. Your opinions would likely be more relevant in the sludge that forms the CBC reader comments.

No.
The CBC is for leftoids.

Totally true, we are playing the what if game now or when game whichever may apply.. Those of us that have 100k plus in the pension sadly resign ourselves to the fact, we will never see it, only getting pennies on the dollar. In our department alone, poeple are actively seeking employment else where to try to get the pension before bankruptcy is declared . Sadly, it probably too late.

Unfortunately this is the most tragic and underreported/untold story of the whole situation. Not the actual bankruptcy and the dramatic downfall, or the legion of haters cheering this on, but the real impact on peoples lives, families, hopes and dreams.

People are clamoring to get out of the ship. But it's locked them inside, and consequently a large amount of their retirement fund is being will be eliminated before their very eyes.

These are the true victims of the whole debacle. Yet no one seems to care for them.

I echo this comment. I feel so "locked in" that I can't get out. I want to, but just can't seem to pull myself up and do it.

Hey if you are willing to walk away right now with no severance do everyone a favour that wants to stick around and leave. NT will thank you and the employees left will thank you.
One less package to give out
We don't really know what the future holds but everyone will always have the freedom of choice in this country called Canuckistan. Who knows what will be left to give out. Who knows what will be sold. Who indeed knows what tomorrow brings.
Suck it up.

Thanks for the tough guy comment. Unfortunately your words are simply salt on the wounds of those going through this current crisis.

The decision to change jobs is never a light one and your snide remarks do nothing but put down people who already aren't feeling well.

Missing the point again.
There is a big difference between changing a job and having to pound the pavement looking for one.
Changing a job implies a person can afford to do that. Needing a job is another mattter. Saying you feel "locked in" is ridiculous. And far as having sympathy for somebody who is simply changing jobs but has nothing meaningful to worry about, like feeding your kids, paying your mortgage, paying your massive debt etc. Well I have NO sympathy for anyone outside of those categories. If you don't like where you are leave. Someone will be grateful, contrary to what some people infer here.

I guess it is easy to judge and criticize and have "no sympathy" when you've never worked a day in your life. (And no, driving the Lexus your parents bought you to the gas station doesn't count as work)

Hey little boy fly back Europe. You seem to think you have wings to do the job anyway?

Not true.
I thought the same thing.
After waiting to get a package for a few years i finally saw a good opportunity come along and moved on w/o the package.
NEXT WEEK there was a layoff at NT.
And because I quit on my own, another guy in my group didn't get a package!
I saved his job.
Do you know how pissed off he was? After waiting for a package for several years, finally getting on that list, and I HAD TO SCREW IT UP FOR HIM? If only i knew! I could have easily waited another week and then he would get a package he waited years to get.
Because of this unfortunate timing, he didn't get anything and quit on his own a year later, just like i did, probably screwing someone else out of the package.

So it's not always a win-win.
Reality is, you have to ignore all else and focus on the opportunity. If you find something worth quitting your current job at NT, you must act, package or not. If you can get a package - great. if not - so be it.

I think you are missing the point. At least until the end of your comments. Moving on to a good opportunity or new secure job without a package is a NO brainer, especially now. We were talking about somebody leaving with no job to go to, but rather just going out to look for one.
Quite a difference between the two scenarios. Your last paragraph is accurate and relevant. That's about all that is.

You were missing an important point, that if you quit w/o package you can be screwing the next guy out of the package too.
That's all i was saying.

Who would quit just for the sake of quitting? Any reasonable person would either find a new job FIRST, then quit, or wait to get notified that he is on the list, start looking asap while collecting the package. IS THAT DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND?
Now WTH is this "just going out to look for one" talk? I go out to look for things on a regular basis, but i don't quit the job that pays the mortgage when i do that, do i?
Let's be REAL here.

Mr Real.
Let me analyze your comment "you could be screwing the next guy out of a package if you quit without one". Two answers to that. Who cares and WOW talk about an irrelevant statement. So joe blow is mad at steve cause he didn't get laid off and had to stay and probably wait for a package. Give me a break man. That is LAME. Sounds like an issue between two friends or acquaintances, not something that should be called a relevant issue in the grand scheme of things.
Your second paragraph makes sense. Why didn't you say that from the beginning rather than sound so detached from reality beforehand?

Having one paragraph that is accurate and relevant is one more paragraph of accuracy and relevance than you'll ever have.

I think your plane ran out of fuel.

Do it. I handed my notice in a month or so ago, after 5 years service. I was so pissed off with the way the company has gone over the past couple of years that I was happy to forego a few $k severance to just get out of the damned place and into a job that will be much harder work, but ultimately more rewarding in every sense of the word.

Net result. Pay rise on the switch. A very happy & chilled Nortelguy as I read the emails & microsites & listen to the bullshit on the GIS calls.

Unfortunately, you are right. The risk in waiting for a severance package that is likely not to come does not justify the potential loss. If you have the chance to move on, it may be the time. Of course, family and other restrains to moving may affect you.

Thank you for your story. You have given hope to the oppressed.

The new job is no further from home than Nortel, so no issues there. For me, the hardest decision was to leave the considerable amount of dedicated, personable & extremely intelligent colleagues I have worked with over the past 5 years.

However, I have become increasingly frustrated over the past couple of years with the inordinate amount of new process and governance we need to jump through to be successful.

In my experience, being a Nortel employee still carries a lot of currency when interviewing for a new company. For those of you thinking about making a change, have a look out in the market. You might be pleasantly surprised with the number and quality of opportunities that are presented to you.

No matter what employees decide to do, always remember that you are amongst the very best people in the industry & should be very proud of that. Despite the pickle we are currently in, I will never forget my time at Nortel for all the right reasons.

In my experience, the job market for high tech is universally terrible right now, unless you are lucky enough to have 10 years experience in a technical niche that is hard to fill. It's my opinion that more people would be leaving Nortel if there were places to go to, but right now there are not.

Absolutely coherent, accurate evaluation there. Bravo, somebody with some brains. Especially in Ottawa Ontario is what you said true and to a lesser extent in pigtown Toronto. Ottawa is a government town frist and foremost where dog eats dog and the french poodle is eating all the competition. Silicon Valley North is rapidly disappearing while the government and people like john manley do nothing but decide how many more immigrants to bring in next year and blame racism and poverty for all the ills on Toronto Streets. Mcguinty is a disgrace. Terry Matthews has given recent warnings what will happen to Hi Tech in Ottawa. He'll be right as usual. Another accurate remark you made is that more people would leave NT if there were places to go but it is only going to get worse visa vie high tech given my analysis above. Things are going to get worse, not better for high tech and jobs in general in the ottawa region, unless again of course you are that french poodle.
Alberta and Saskatchewan are the places to be, and that will become more apparent in months to come. Ontario is a shithole and Quebec not far behind, again, unless you are that french poodle.

Hey guys ...

I got out of NT some years ago. Just know that there are good jobs out there for good people. Of course.

I've nothing but sympathy for you the way this company has gone. But they did it to themselves. You didn't.

We're heading into very tough times. My parents went through the Depression and Nazi occupation. No shit.

You'll get by too. It's not like we have a choice, eh?

Nazi occupation would be much preferred to Nazi extermination. I am sure they would be grateful for that.

Easy to say when you get a new job with comparable pay and amenities.

Your statement applies dead on to Martha Bejar, the former CALA president at NT, who left approx. 2 yrs ago for a marketing PR post at MicroSoft.
Talk about bailing out in time!

It will be interesting to see if Bejar is able to help any NT employees come to MS without making the trek to Seattle.

Surely (and please tell me if I'm wrong) if an employee resigns, they will at least get any monies they have in the pension plan?

Of course waiting for a severance package + pension plan payout would be nice, but it seems that a severance package is unlikely for those that remain, and that includes any loss of monies they may have in the pension plan.

So it seems the best course of action, if you believe NT will go BK, is to resign now and at least walk away with whatever you may have in the pension plan.

Didn't Nortel's recent change to its pension plan making it a defined contribution plan have an impact on the monies current employees had accrued over the years in their respective accounts?

Yes.

Nortelguy,
Thanks but let me be more specific because I was referring to a negative impact on current employees' accrued monies in the NT pension plan.

What I wanted to know is does a switch to a defined contribution plan have an immediate, "overnight" negative effect to those monies up to that date or just from that date forward?

They actually have 19 months to address the debt due in July 2011. Furthermore, it's not all doomsday scenarios from the analysts.." eight analysts who follow the company rate the common shares a "sell," not everyone has such a bleak outlook, according to Bloomberg. Four analysts still rate them a "buy," and 11 a "hold." The 23 analysts have an average 12-month price target of $2.45."

At $5 a share, Barry Richards of Paradigm Capital has one of the highest price targets. He argues that the company is in "a lot better shape than the market is prepared to admit.

Not sure where you come up with "19 months" as I see it as 30 months between now and July, 2011.

Perhaps Mark Sue believes that the current economic conditions are going to last about 3 years. Perhaps he thinks that credit markets will be forzen for about 3 years. Perhaps he thinks that it will be impossible for Nortel to do any debt refinancing.

Or perhaps he has a strong short position in Nortel and wants to make some money.

Hopefully Mike and Pavi have talked to Mark and his boss yesterday.

Sorry you are right on the 30 months TIC....a bit rushed this morning!

The $5 rating is likely tempered by the fact that Paradigm probably owns boatloads of NT and has to delude themselves. Otherwise they would not be rational.

The fact that the bonds are trading at 21%-41% is a bleak outlook. Remember the coupon rate on these was something like 10-11%, so if you're only paying 21% of par value to get it... you are getting a 50% return in one year, meaning you don't expect the company to survive that long.

And notafan... AAN isn't the only one reporting negative news.

The $5 rating is likely tempered by the fact that Paradigm probably owns boatloads of NT and has to delude themselves. Otherwise they would not be rational.


Oh so because Paradigm has a $5 rating on Nortel,it can only be because they probably own "boatloads" of NT?

Get over yourself man,bond holders are influenced by the same sentiment that controls equities therefore if a bond is trading at 21 % on the dollar,it probably correlates to the perceived value of Nortel shares right now.

As another blogger mentioned 19 months before Nortel's debt payment is due in this business is a long time,it was more than enough to have RBC's Mark Sue change his rating on Nortel 12 times,so to call out a potential bankruptcy at this stage should be given as much merit as his ability as an analyst in the first place.

Mark Sue can speculate all he wants,but his ability to foresee the declining telecom fundamentals for Nortel and the industry have been piss poor at best as we can see with his numerous price target changes for Nortel from $32 about 18 months ago down to zero currently in the same timeframe that he is predicting a potential bankruptcy.

Based on his track record,I expect Mark Sue to adjust his rating on Nortel by at least the same amount as he has done over the last 18 months.

reporting? news? buddy i think you've come to the wrong place for it. i'm here for opinions and rumours

Attacking this blog or others that read it does not make the FACTS (yes FACTS) they report any less true. Thus no need for ad hominem attacks.

don't ruin it for our beloved mark. he was getting all excited about the potential of the doomsday, bankruptcy, or whatever you want to call it. i mean, he's mentioned sue's target price of zero 3 times in 3 of his latest posts. he must be wetting himself right now because he's so excited.

NoF...sounding pretty bitter there, dude. Remember, AAN is only the messenger.

The situation is not good for Nortel and hasn't been for a long time. Trying to present a rosy image of Nortel in the midst of all of this turmoil is like putting a fresh coat of paint on rotting wood. Looks nice but the structure is still going to fail.

where in does the national post article mention about mark sue's target price or rats fleeing a sinking ship? the problem i have with your statement is that its rubbish. if aan was just a pure messenger, why does it amplify some messages and filter others? because it's driven by the poster's perception (not "realistic" bs) of nortel. remember, aan is a blog, and i would not believe, or consider "real" of anything on it unless it is verified on an acclaimed source

NotaFan, here is the url from national post that you asked, just google it, dude
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2008/11/13/nortel-may-face-bankruptcy-price-target-cut-to-zero.aspx

Get over it. There is no hatred, just reporting of the facts. Just because the facts don't match with your own views doesn't mean AAN is a "hater blog"

thanks mr dj for putting words in my mouth. can you quote me saying that there is hatred or that AAN is a hater blog? if that's the rule around here then you should get over your "please look at me mommy" syndrome

Your sarcastic tone and self-absorbed wit were words enough. Could you express your disdain of AAN in any better way?

What are all the NT haters going to do when it's over...start picking on RIMM?...maybe they can drive that to zero also...Canada will return to it main use int he World as a source of fur and stocky broads.

It's not hate, man...it's called reality. See my response above to notafan.

The best way for optimists would be to avoid reading this blog. The lower the hit rate, the better transformed this guy will be. I for one will stop visiting this blog.

Who?