Nortel’s decision to sell its Metro Ethernet Network business is a real puzzler to pretty one everyone it seems except Nortel’s executives.
In a research note, TD Securities analyst Chris Umiastowski said he was “shocked” by Nortel’s decision given MEN is seen as the company “crown jewel” and its 40GB optical transport technology has been a big success since its launch last quarter.
“The MEN business does about $1.5 billion in sales per year, and we are told it is operating at approximately break-even. We’ve been bullish on this business unit and believe Nortel has been taking back market share. Selling the business now is a bad move, in our view. It won’t significantly alter the company’s profitability, and it hurts future growth. Unless Nortel can get close to 1 times sales for the business, we are not convinced it will help the valuation much to sell it. We would rather see the company divest its Enterprise business and focus solely on carriers.”
Umiastowski has downgraded Nortel to a “hold” and slashed his target price to $3.50 from $10.
“Two major holes have been shot in our bull thesis. They both relate to revenue growth. First, the change in outlook really takes the wind out of the sails on near-term growth. Without stable to slightly growing revenue it is very difficult for SG&A cuts to turn into EPS growth. Second, the sale of MEN takes away longer term growth potential that we feel the company needs to fight the weakening wireless business. We are not left with a catalyst that we feel can strongly support a buy recommendation.”
The decisions clearly indicate that Mike is not capable of running a corporation. Lots of positive words do not hide the disaster over the past three years. John Roese has backed the wrong technologies and sunk the company. Their optical division is far better off to get as far away from the current executives as possible. The performance of the company speaks volumes of its leadership.
God help the people left behind in the dying Enterprise and Wireless divisions.
Novice Investor
Possible suitors floated by some investors include Telefon AB LM Ericsson and China's Huawei Technologies Co. Ericsson could use Nortel's relationship with U.S. carriers to win lucrative contracts for converting their wireless networks to next-generation equipment. Huawei, which has made rapid inroads in other parts of the world, might try to use Nortel to improve its presence in North America.
broadbandbill
TiC,
Time has told, and spoken; loud an clear. Like a storm, World Class has been downgraded to just Third Class!! -- bb
BillyBob
Why is this such a shock to everyone?
As I posted a couple weeks back:
1) MikeZ cant turn it around
2) needs to boost his ego
3) he will divest bits and sell the rest to either MS or IBM
MEN is easy to integrate into an existing business or can function as a standalone if needed. Easy to cut out of the org with little impact to deals or customers.
Watch wireless get sold off. It is as well easy to sever.
Data is a nothing in the marketplace.
Carrier VoIP is minor growth area but has good sustaining footprint.
Eneterprize Voice and YouSee is where the next bit of $$ is
SOA and that script kiddy stuff.....well there are no barriers to entry and NT has no advantage.
Beer on me if they dont fallow this plan!
I would have to give the NT spin doctors credit cause they pounced and pre warned right after the banks....good timing so they can blame it on something other then their incompetence. Funny how they did not do it last week, or as many pointed out 6 weeks ago they were on track. Which rhymes with crack!
Between now and early November (Q3 Results Day), there will be a lot of rumors, noise, comments and total nonsense related to Nortel. It has become pretty clear that Nortel intends to give more details on restructuring and strategy during the Q3 call. There are no simple answers and no single right answer.
It seems that Nortel is calling out VoIP and UC solutions for Enterprise and Carrier as their primary strategy moving forward. Their relationships with Microsoft and IBM adds value to this strategy. Their Data products add value here as well along with the recent acquisitions of PingTel and DiamondWare. From the 2007 Annual Report, it looks like this solution area generated around $4.6 Billion in Revenues.
So to get to this position requires MEN to be sold and something done with the Wireless business. Perhaps Wireless gets more broadly folded into the LG-Nortel JV.
We will all have to wait until early November to see what is going to happen but I doubt we will have all the answers at that time. Many analysts have been calling for a more clear strategy and focus from Nortel, so they're on their way to giving that. Some will like it and some won't. Only time will tell.
exnt2
makes sense to eject enterprise but there is one variable - politics
exnt
Boo hoo, my BFF Mikey Z is selling off Metro Ethernet and my longtime love for Nortel and Mikey was in vain!! After all my ridiculously positive analyst reports, and my gushy commments on conference calls, and my recommendations, NOW THIS!! What is a poor analyst to do??!!
Umiastowski Shocked by MEN Decision
Nortel’s decision to sell its Metro Ethernet Network business is a real puzzler to pretty one everyone it seems except Nortel’s executives.
In a research note, TD Securities analyst Chris Umiastowski said he was “shocked” by Nortel’s decision given MEN is seen as the company “crown jewel” and its 40GB optical transport technology has been a big success since its launch last quarter.
Umiastowski has downgraded Nortel to a “hold” and slashed his target price to $3.50 from $10.
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