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      • « Media Lovin’ for Nortel | Main | Zack’s Sees Stock Price Volatility »

      Internet Traffic to Boom

      By Mark Evans | June 16, 2008

      If you’re a telecom equipment supplier banking on the Internet’s growth to drive sales, a new forecast from Cisco can only be good news.

      Cisco suggests traffic on the world’s networks will jump 46% a year from 2007 to 2012. In 2012, Cisco claims Internet video traffic will be a staggering 400x carried on the U.S. Internet backbone in 2000. Video-on-demand, IP-TV, P2P and Internet video will account for 90% of all consumer IP traffic in 2012.

      For more, check out GigaOm, which suggests Cisco’s forecasts look reasonable.

      Here’s a cool chart looking at Internet traffic growth around the world.

      Picture 3-19

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        BTW, the following article is IMO very bad news for Nortel. I think they are at a distinct competitive disadvantage when recruting new talent. Many will charge them a market premium to work in the insecure and dismal employee environment,

        http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?st...
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        ex nortel ^2

        No doubt that the world is becoming more bifurcated into haves and have nots. I believe at least some of this fear and loathing is engineered crisis to distract people from real issues, solutions and possible compromise that take the profit out of misery.

        OTOH those that do have to physically commute should soon enjoy less congestion and expense because of reduced demand as we wobble (hopefully) in a forward direction.
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        You're exactly right, many, and it well my pan as out as your say.

        My concern is when it move from personal applications and consumption to the business economy at large.

        "I suspect companies will subsidize connections for workers that can use them productively."
        Definitely, but for the companies that remain standing. From everything I've been reading and talking to a couple of select individuals in the know, we are standing at an economic and financial precipice, the world over. I

        'm not given to extreme theories, but as the news pans out each day, it's looking much more real each time. IT won't put food on the table in Egypt, Indonesia and China where they've already experienced food riots. Other countries are eliminating food exports. Last month Costco in the States limited sales of rice to two bags a customer to stop the hoarding over news of an imminent price increase.

        Interesting times.
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        ex-nortel: I see exactly the opposite. The internet is an everyday necessity for business and commerce. This is what is driving the growth not so much kids summer entertainment, but global commerce

        Telecommuting saves gas and is fairly green. I see more and more people not only replacing costly travel for meetings, but for daily work. As I post this I am online working with people in 4 time zones on applications for the China Olympics. I suspect companies will subsidize connections for workers that can use them productively.
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        Back to Basics Folks ... you know, the real people that pay for your food, shelter from the elements, ... Who needs the internet at $50/$100 a month pop?

        'Next It Could Be Cable'

        So far, we've seen stories about consumers cutting back on spending for cars, boats and other durable goods, as well as less expensive discretionary items like vacations and meals at casual dining restaurants.

        Well, it looks like at least some people have found a way to make the most of an economic environment that keeps going from bad to worse. According to the following report from Florida's Naples News, "Economy Fueling Patron Increases at Local Libraries," they are finding what they need at a place that some viewed as a dinosaur in the digital age.

        Library cards don’t cost $4 a gallon.

        Southwest Floridians struggling to make ends meet are driving to area libraries. They’re filling their intellectual tanks and keeping their children entertained on the cheap.

        As Tara Andalman, 38, stepped out of her mini-van on Monday afternoon outside the branch library in Bonita Springs, cars were doing circles around her.

        More than a dozen library patrons were coming or going every 15 minutes as Andalman unloaded four children, all in elementary school. Two of the kids were hers, the others friends. Clearly, it was time for distractions.

        After cutting movie rentals from the family budget earlier this year, Andalman said she has had no problem finding free alternatives.

        “The library has pretty much all the movies, books and audio tapes we need,” Andalman said, adding that camps have also been cut from the budget. “Next it could be cable.”

        The situation in Bonita isn’t much different than in Collier County, spokeswoman Camden Smith said. At libraries across the county, the majority of the items checked out are DVDs.

        “Several of our library branches have reported customers checking out DVDs have stated that they just can’t afford to rent,” Smith said, adding that she herself spent $15 over the weekend on rentals. “That’s an astronomical cost for them on a monthly basis ... the libraries are saving them money.”

        In Lee County, library officials are estimating about 600,000 more items will be checked out this year than last, a 17.5 percent increase.

        “That’s huge,” Executive Director Sheldon Kaye said. “Well, last year we were up about 13 percent. The year before? About 10. Normally, if a library were up about 5 or 6 percent, that would be very good. So these figures are fairly unprecedented.”

        The increase in circulation has come at a time when difficulties in the real estate and construction industries have forced many area families to pack up and leave the state for work elsewhere. The Lee County School District lost about 2,100 students during the course of the last school year, which it attributed to the economy-fueled exodus.

        But it’s not just those struggling to survive who are trying to save money.

        “No matter how much money you’re making right now, everyone’s concerned with the economy,” Smith said.

        Andalman’s husband is in construction, but he works on commercial structures, an area of the industry that has kept moving despite the recession. She said her job as a pre-school teacher is secure, but said increases in bills, insurance and taxes have all made things more difficult.

        Sixteen-year Bonita resident Barbara Couch, 49, is looking for work.

        “I guess economically we’re all trying to save money,” Couch said.

        As she approached the Bonita branch, Couch had a half-dozen movies in her hand — “Oceans 13” and “Indian” were among the titles.

        “It’s never been that packed off-season,” Couch said of the library’s business. “The library’s one of those free things in life.”

        Despite the increase in library traffic, Kaye said the libraries are keeping up with demand. Lee County’s libraries recently had self-checkout machines installed.

        “One of the other things that coincided with this increase in use, we have quite a number of positions open,” Kaye said. So our staff is stretched pretty thinly. Even though we are experiencing an increase in use, those machines are helping us keep up.”

        Bonita resident Fred Hand, 80, also noted an increase in activity. Being retired didn’t keep him from hauling out a shopping-bag full of books from the Bonita branch, just like he always has.

        Even for Hand, though, the economy has had an effect. The books may be free, he said, but the problem is getting there.

        “You don’t want to drive with the gas prices,” Hand said. “So you read more.”
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        I think shasta was infamous for unrealized potential and an example of the inability to deliver. The services edge router 5500 (formally known as shasta) was MDed in 2007 for many reasons including the uncompetitive support of BGP route peering. Although, I recall that it is really the number of BGP routes in the BGP table not the number of BGP peers that was the limiting factor.
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        When it comes to Internet infrastructure building, Nortel looks really lame, give you an example, the famous shasta can not even handle more than 256 BGP peers, we found out this in a hard way
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        I think the today’s Internet is the just begining… we didn’t touch the botton and I think, we are far far way… Imagine now when the 3G phones like Apple’s IPhone became cheaper and accessible? We'll have lot's of new applications and ideas that can use the Internet access...
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        MaskedElectron - I think another wave of infrastructure buildout is coming. If this were 1997, I'd be buying Nortel stock. However, the reason I'm NOT doing that right now is because I have near-zero confidence that this Nortel will execute effectively. The evidence is all to the contrary. As soon as the infrastructure buildout starts to take off, MZ will probably rotate Hackney (the choker) into Morin's role. Sound ridiculous? Think about it, who would have thought that the choker was a suitable candidate for the Enterprise role?
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        Just a note here, also read something somewhere the other day where current bandwidth is going to hit a wall, as no one has been investing in infrastructure since the 2000 meltdown, and so combine this with your current article, might be another 1997 again ( and then a meltdown from selling too much in 2012!) .
       
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