Nortel-BSNL: Round II

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1080531/jsp/jhark...

Jamshedpur, May 30: The BSNL mobile subscribers are facing a harrowing time in Jamshedpur for the past one month.

Disruption in connectivity has now made subscribers consider the BSNL mobile service as a “B-grade” service provider. The poor connectivity would continue for two more weeks.

Basic electronic equipment is being replaced in all the 101 BSNL towers set up across Jamshedpur. According to a highly placed source in BSNL’s Jamshedpur secondary switching area, BSNL was earlier using Nortel equipment, but now the department is using Ericsson equipment.


“We are replacing Nortel machinery with Ericsson equipment since the past one month. We expect the work to be over by mid-June,” said R.K. Mishra, the general manager, BSNL, Jamshedpur.

Sources said the replacement work is being carried out in full force and the disruption in connectivity was fallout of this work.

The department has to suspend the functioning of the BSNL mobile tower to carry out the work.

“The mobile service is found disrupted for hours at a stretch. The poor connectivity will cause similar inconvenience for at least a fortnight,” said the officer.

There is a total of 1,69,376 BSNL mobile users in Jamshedpur. BSNL mobiles are preferred by businessmen and professionals since it is both cost-effective and has coverage even in remote areas in the district. But over the past month, the BSNL service has deteriorated.

“The recent trouble is not only hampering business to a great extent, but has also made me realise that only depending on BSNL mobile would not help,” said a leading transporter N.K. Jha.

Jha said till recently he subscribed to BSNL mobile only, but the recent disruption has forced him to subscribe to another service provider. “Now I have more faith in Reliance mobile than in BSNL. Though it does not have vast infrastructure, Reliance service is as good as any other private service provider,” added Jha.

“The earthing system in BSNL mobile towers is flawed. Contractors assigned to install the earthing system do their job without maintaining the required standards. Consequently, electronic equipment fitted in the towers get damaged during thunderstorms, causing disruption in mobile phone services,” said Mishra.

Over the past one month, BSNL mobile service has been disrupted at least 13 times.
question
Who will cover the bill
...
We know that ERICs charges around $100 a line to replace..

I am still waiting for someone to explain it to me how NT will make money on $40 /line deal from BSNL.
Is it too much top ask all the bulls on NT?
Does NT have magic formula to to be profitable at $40 when Erics is not sure of profits at $100/line?
What is that formula, please?

During world war II the BBC was involved in the propaganda war against occupied France and the Nazi-controlled Radio-Paris, announcing periodically "Radio Paris ment, Radio Paris ment, Radio Paris est allemand" (Radio Paris is lying, Radio Paris is lying, Radio Paris is German). When I come here and see how an information can be presented & transformed, I really have the impression to be in Paris in 1942.

When I come here and see how an information can be presented & transformed, I really have the impression to be in Paris in 1942.
==============
re
BBC
Why don't you say what you mean?
It's not ww2 anymore
You can speak your mind.
Do you find unstrung article misleading?
It's most reputable source I know.
Tell us your ideas!
What's propaganda in your opinion?
I was never wrong about bsnl_nt $500 mill deal.
In my calculation NT should ask $1,3 bill for the deal but the deal was signed for $500 mill only!
$800 below the market price!

Apple - I think you need to re-read my previous post. I'm not trying to claim that Nortel can be profitable at $40/line. I'm saying that $40/line is wrong. The point was that taking an excerpt from an article and using simple math to try to determine a price-per-line doesn't work here.

Your further speculation on the legalities of the contract is also wrong. This is a new agreement, which the first line in the press release highlights with the words "has won an agreement."

PS - you insults are as bad as your speculation...."tell your lies to your mama" ? Are you for real?

Mark Evans
I demand you recalculate the BSNL-NT deal loss
You have to have your opinion on that.
Why did you state NT lost $260 mill in above post? It’s not true!
After 2005 report you were sure NT lost $327 mill on $340 mill revenue /your own blog shows it/ and we had 2006 and new 2007 loss on the deal as well.
Mark Evans, why don't you tell us if March 12 2008 bsnl_nt 2.5 mill lines at $40/line deal is a new profitable bid or just the extension of 2004 loss leader deal. You claim on this blog you know Nortel. I want to see your involvement in the blog discussion. You blame Nortel CTO that he is not available at his blog. I am waiting for your answer here.

Apple,

The loss seems like a bit of a moving target - different places cite different figures - but I will do some digging and come back with an accurate number.

Mark

Apple,

The loss seems like a bit of a moving target - different places cite different figures - but I will do some digging and come back with an accurate number.

Mark
====
Mark, did you do the digging?

You're right, it is a moving target. The most accurate number that I've seen suggests Nortel lost $308 million on revenue of $248-million in 2004/2005 from the BSNL contract, which was originally worth $500-million before Nortel moved to scale it back. This information comes from Nortels 2005 annual report.

Here's how Nortel explained the losses:

"The losses are primarily driven by the existing contractual terms negotiated in response to pricing pressures as a result of the competitive nature of India’s telecommunications market and an increase in project implementation costs. The time limit within which BSNL could exercise its 50% business expansion option under the contract has passed and we will not supply BSNL with products or services for this expansion."

For what it's worth, the departure of Gary Kunis as COO was much to do with the India contract. Kunis did not think it was a good idea and fought tooth and nail to get away from the deal. Owens, however, was adamant about Nortel doing business in China.

You're right, it is a moving target. The most accurate number that I've seen suggests Nortel lost $308 million on revenue of $248-million in 2004/2005 from the BSNL contract, which was originally worth $500-million before Nortel moved to scale it back. This information comes from Nortels 2005 annual report.
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re
Mark, if what you said were true it would be even worse than loss/revenue ratio I present...

Your ratio shows much more than $1 loss on $1 revenue.
I remember NT reported about $340 mill in revenue from that deal /and the loss was $327 mill at that moment... probably end of 2006/
Do you know that Nortel reported another loss in Q1 2008 on BSNL? I think it was around $30 mill.
I have no time to dig it now.... anyone can comment on the Nortel's losses on BSNL deal? The Owens BSNL deals...

Nortel bid on this BSNL contract to make a profit, not as another loss leader. The $40 price-per-line is simply wrong. The simple math that Apple uses is too simple.

Simple common sense tells you that if the previous low bid by Ericsson was $91 per line then that would by default create a floor price for new bids (at the lowest).

Simple regulatory guidelines suggest that if Nortel was taking this contract at a material loss (which we aren't) then we would have had to disclose that in the press release (which we didn't have to) -- much as we did with the original BSNL contract back in December 2004.

The bottom line (which my "BSNL revisited" post on http://blogs.nortel.com/buzzboard was all about) is that Nortel wouldn't be doing this deal if it wasn't profitable. Over the past year Nortel has cost-reduced our GSM solution by about 50%, allowing us to be very competitively priced in the market. This is an example of that new cost leadership.

Nortel bid on this BSNL contract to make a profit, not as another loss leader. The $40 price-per-line is simply wrong. The simple math that Apple uses is too simple.
====
re
What math don't you understand?
Simple math is simple.
Do you want to tell me that Nortel will be profitable on $40/line contract?
So tell me how profitable ERICs will be on $100/line deal?
Tell your lies to your mama, simple math is simple!
and you can be sure I know math at the high level as well...
Look, it looks good to claim NT is profitable at $40/line now!
The problem is that it's not true!
There are deals available for $100/line and nobody wanted them /except ERICS/!!!!
Simple math with simple logic tells me that $40/line is the lost court battle of MikeZ vs BSNL!
Mike thought that new CEO does not have to deliver contracts signed by B Owens.
The contract signed on Dec 14 2004 was specific about $340 mill deal and the 50% extension at the same price if bsnl decides so.
Looks like bsnl liked the price!
If there was no trial and the court, that's good for Nortel as the deal is the deal! Nortel would lose even more in the battle! Of course it is my speculation; it is what investing is all about!
Speculation!
Just for god’s sake
Don’t come here claiming that unstrung article doesn’t show $40/ line price and calling me a liar on that!!
I am waiting for simple apology.

When a person reads the Unstrung article there is no mention of the total number of lines for this contract. Yet, Apple has fabricated numbers to suggest that the price is $40.00 per line. A fine example of false and misleading information in attempts to discredit Nortel. Then again, that does seem to be the purpose of this blog lately.

Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd. (BSNL) has placed follow-on orders with previous suppliers Nortel Networks Ltd. (NYSE/Toronto: NT - message board) and Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT - message board) for 5 million lines.
BSNL has ordered 8 billion Indian Rupees (US$197.67 million) worth of GSM equipment, divided equally between the two vendors,
http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=148242
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re
Nortel_will_survive Raed it again, you liar!

Apple, there are no public facts related to the Total Contract Value, Total Number of Lines, Gross Margin in the deal, if this is for new Base Stations or Card Upgrades to exisiting Base Stations. All of this information is being held private between Nortel and BSNL which is their right.

You however are posting fabricated and misleading information with no basis in fact simply because you hate Nortel and want to see them destroyed.

You may be Mark's biggest fan, but most of us are getting sick and tired of your false and misleading information.

Good to see that Bo Gowan has come forward with some additional information.

Apple, there are no public facts related to the Total Contract Value, Total Number of Lines,
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re
What you are talking about?
Did you read Unstrung article?
There is everything there what I need to know and ask my questions_speculation. If you can't add to the topic, why don't you just stfu and wait for someone with IQ to comment.
If we see 13 mill lines and $1.3 bill deal bsnl_erics everyone knows it is $100 a line!
If we see $200 mill deal equally divided to 2 vendors for 5 mill lines we know it is $40 /line deal for NT.
You don't have to come to this blog to stop our speculations, do you?
Is speculating on blogs about companies_deals_stocks permitted in USA?
Yes it is.
What about Canada?

BSNL revisited
By Bo Gowan March 25, 2008 1:45 pm EDT

One of the new wireless wins that I mentioned in my previous post was a $100 million contract to provide GSM wireless infrastructure to BSNL in India.

While a $100 million contract is always good news, this particular contract has an interesting history to it. Nortel previously won a GSM deployment with BSNL at the end of 2004. At the time of the announcement, Nortel highlighted that we would lose money on the deal, but that it was “an important strategic investment” for Nortel to establish a footprint in India’s fast-growing market.

Over the next year, that loss increased as implementation costs came in higher than expected. By the end of 2005, Nortel was generally being criticized all around for taking such a big loss on the deal.

So with such a negative history with BSNL, how could this possibly be news that we’d want to sing about in a press release?

The answer is simple. This contract provides tangible results of the immense cost-cutting efforts that Nortel has been focused on since Mike Z took the reigns. In 2005 while detailing the increasing loses that Nortel was taking in the BSNL deployment, then CFO Peter Currie stated “In terms of future business … our intent is to build the business profitably, perspectively. So any future business in India, or other theaters for that matter, we’re looking at very carefully to ensure it generates positive returns for Nortel shareholders.”

The message was clear - Nortel was not interested in taking future losses in order to gain footprint in new markets like India. Over the next few years, Nortel declined to participate in other BSNL bids due to lack of profit potential. This latest opportunity comes as other wireless vendors struggle to find a profit with BSNL.

What has changed this time around is that Nortel has been able to greatly reduce its cost base for deploying GSM. In today’s announcement, Nortel president of Carrier Networks Richard Lowe said, “India represents an enormous opportunity for Nortel in the carrier space, with its consistently high growth rates and increasingly mobile population. We have redesigned our GSM portfolio with this kind of opportunity in mind, making our solution much more cost competitive, without compromising the performance, capacity and coverage for which Nortel is renowned.”

While GSM is a 2G technology that can’t be considered “the future” of where wireless is going, in emerging growth markets like India GSM is a cost-effective way to get mobile service to the masses. With this contract, Nortel has shown that it can now be a cost leader in the market.

This is not the deal from 2 weeks ago, it is a separate new onw.

Inalmm and Apple,

IMO, the upward movement in the pps may be largely due to shorts covering their position and pocket profits. It is temporary and coincidental to the BSNL contract (extension).

Nortel watcher
J.Christ
Don't you ppl understand that bsnl_nt $100mill deal was on March 12 2008?
2 weeks ago!
read this before replying again, please.
http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=148242
read! $40 a line for NT when "normal" price is $100 a line!

Hey Apple:

it is just the mood that counts. Nortel stock was down because of on-the-paper loss (deferred tax), now it is up because of win of contract in India that you call it as an extension of a prior contract.

in other words the stock is up for the same reason why it was down before.

cheers.

inalmm
You got it wrong, man.
My point was that Mark Evans knew that bsnl deal lost $327 mill and his above post shows $260 mill only.

India deal is 2 weeks old news now.
I have been providing that link since March 12 2008
http://www.unstrung.com/document.asp?doc_id=148242
so your assumption that NT stock moved up on that news today is probably wrong as well.
not to mention that the $100 mill deal is an extension of the loss-leader deal on which NT's been losing $1 on each dollar of the revenue to this very day.
That's what I wanted to talk about and my posts are available here if you click Recent Tab on the right of that screen and click my name
I talked about that extension in few my posts....last week
btw
If we talk about stock movement, yes, NT longs enjoy few days of recovering their loss. Good for them.
Now, read the article from Unstrung.com ,the reliable source, about that $100 mill deal and come back to say your opinion about the deal, not about the messenger.

Mark E, you have already posted total loss reported few years ago...
read
$327-million of losses on $340-million of revenue, according to Nortel's 2005 10-K
http://www.allaboutnortel.com/2006/10/06/nortel...

You probably don't believe that this $100 mill deal is just the delayed extension of the old deal /$500 mill Dec 2004/
Probably you have no time to check my numbers that NT should ask $1.3 bill for that deal...
why would you care about NT_bsnl numbers, right?
Who cares?
I will stop my care about your blog if you don't care about looking for real numbers...
I know you are busy lately so I will just wait calmly..
cheers!
btw
You can click on my name to see my posts about March 12 2008 $100 mill bsnl deal...if you find time of course...

Thats nice that they have new products. Unfortunately, a lot of the loss last time was due to bad project management and the costs of construction. Most of the people who learned from their mistakes have moved on or were moved on. Is Nortel going to screw it up again?