There are three things that Canadians all seem to agree on: they like that Loonie/USD trade these days, that Guy Lafleur was one heck of a hockey player, and Nortel Networks (NT) is trapped in some kind of a death spiral. At least five different Canada-based investment research operations have weighed in with critical comments on the telecommunications equipment maker, and are delivering another punishing blow to the ailing stock. Shares have dropped to a fresh low for the year, after plunging 13% Wednesday in reaction to the company’s quarterly results. Analysts are worried that Nortel’s fortunes, tied so closely to earlier-generation cell-phone technology, simply doesn’t have a plan to keep pace with the wireless equipment market.”
I vaguely recall bygone Nortel brass rattling off buzzwords like "levering synergies" and preaching how crucial "time to market" was.
Nortel R&D is getting pretty darn small, and I doubt its sending whats left of it off to countries where hamsters in wheels generate electricity - when they're not being roasted on sticks - is going to enhance "time to market" in any way.
Apple
From the time perspective it's easy to conclude
Nortel restructuring program has not been working, or did not work!
Is there any chance Mike can be successful cutting another 2100 and shifting 1000? maybe small chance... Nortel has been bleeding too long!!! Employees have been watching the horror of cuts year after year, CEO after CEO after CEO There used to be 100 000 heads at Nortel in 2000! Today it’s 30k There are good companies with good benefits, am I wrong? Many Nortel employees have found good jobs and started new businesses, as I know. The painful cuts continue! Why the small steps? Do it once and forever. Don’t be afraid of BK words! It is well overdue. 2002 was the best time to do it when NT stock was on its way to zero! AirCanada did it! Planes are still flying Laidlaw did it! Buses are still traveling! Today they are stronger than ever! The way Nortel does restructuring, in next few years you will not find anyone who remembers anything good_positive about that 100 years old company! There are Millions of defrauded shareholders and for what? Just to keep the fat paychecks and bonuses for management? Nortel filed new bonus plan this week /SEC 8k/ Bonuses will be paid on margin improvements. Yes, managers will get them no matter what by squeezing employees and selling assets! What shareholders are getting? OH look at the chart! If you knew nothing about Nortel the chart would tell you full story! btw where is my compensation for defrauded shareholders in 2004? $30.50 a share calculation... OK I've already given up, I don't like to be held hostage for years. It is just painful to watch new investors lured into that stock on false Q2 2005 Triple Profits numbers, or on Mike's false turn around story on Nov 16 2006 conference for the investors It’s been too painful to watch! just my personal opinions, Nortel, please, prove me wrong just once!
Another Nortel Watcher
No, no, no, no. This is not an industry problem. Do not cut Nortel (or ALU or MOT) any slack. The industry is doing just fine. Nokia's stock has almost doubled in the past year. Research in Motion has maintained a strong positive trend as well. Same for the wireless business of Samsung and LG. The companies that adapt and innovate are doing just fine. The telecom companies that are run by former GE and Home Depot executives don't have a clue what's going on and are on the rocks. And let's not point the spotlight solely on MZ. Pat Russo at ALU is in just as much trouble. She may have architected a cool merger, but her company shares the same problem as Nortel and Moto - NO vision. The customer base isn't going to wait. The Europeans, Koreans, and Chinese will fill the void in a blink. I think it's already too late.
The most painful part of this whole debacle is that it has been so predictable.
Observer
We can all agree that the economy is slowing down and carriers are pulling back spending. Now would a wireless carrier take a chance on some high risk new technology during a slowdown or would rely on something they know would bring in revenue until the down cycle turned ? Would Barron's care to name a telecom equipment stock that hasn't dropped to a fresh low this year ? My prediction is consumers pull back spending dramatically and quit using as much data services on their cell phones and even move to cheaper, stripped down service plans, making it less likely that carriers install new equipment.
A Close Observer
Observer,
I enjoy reading your comments, but you may have missed the point this time. high risk technology companies aren't carriers only other options. They could easily choose to buy 4G LTE from established 3G market players like Ericsson, NSN or ALU. These would be very low-risk options.
Also, while you're correct that all telecom equipment manufacturers stock prices have suffered recently, only NT's ability to survive in its current form is being called into question. That Ericsson, NSN and ALU will survive is a foregone conclusion.
Nortel will not survive in its current form. It doesn't have the revenue or balance sheet to effectively invest in all of its markets in a way that could vault it into leadership positions. It's spread too thin. It needs to select just a coupled of markets where it has the ability to invest in R&D to be #1 or #2. If it doesn't do this, customers will begin to avoid it further, accelerating its death spiral.
NT also doesn't have the balance sheet to acquire anything of consequence. Given it's current market cap, if credit markets were less constrained, it could be an easy target to buy and break up. In fact, I was thinking of skipping my Starbucks for a few days, and buying NT myself. I could probably make a quick profit by auctioning off the rights among NT employees to terminate Hackney.
youngguns76
It's obvious most analysts are expecting a slow down in the economy. Should anyone be surprised by the downgrade?
Barron’s: It’s a Death Spiral
Here’s what Barron’s Stocks to Watch blog Today had to say about Nortel:
ANOTHER SHOT ACROSS NORTEL BOW
There are three things that Canadians all seem to agree on: they like that Loonie/USD trade these days, that Guy Lafleur was one heck of a hockey player, and Nortel Networks (NT) is trapped in some kind of a death spiral. At least five different Canada-based investment research operations have weighed in with critical comments on the telecommunications equipment maker, and are delivering another punishing blow to the ailing stock. Shares have dropped to a fresh low for the year, after plunging 13% Wednesday in reaction to the company’s quarterly results. Analysts are worried that Nortel’s fortunes, tied so closely to earlier-generation cell-phone technology, simply doesn’t have a plan to keep pace with the wireless equipment market.”
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