Umiastowski Goes Bullish on NT

TD Securities analyst Chris Umiastowski has gone bullish on Nortel – a week after Scotia Capital’s Gus Papageorgiou came out with a $30 stock price target.

Umiastowski upgraded NT today to “Action List Buy” from “Buy”, while maintaining his target price at $28.

Here’s his reasoning for the move:

“After rallying with its strong Q3 results, Nortel’s stock price has been under pressure ever since. We believe that the company is showing much improved financial performance and expect that improvement to continue when Nortel announces its Q4 results. We view the recent sell off as an attractive buying opportunity and have upgraded Nortel to Action List BUY.”

“Nortel’s price to sales ratio is at a five-year low. Nortel currently trades at about 0.5-0.6x the twelve-month forward consensus sales estimate. For the
last few years, this ratio has typically been around 1x. The last time Nortel traded this low on a price to sales basis was the fall of 2002 when there were legitimate concerns for the company’s survival. We certainly don’t have those same concerns today and believe that this valuation metric should rise.”

So, who’s next to jump on the NT bandwagon?

Technorati Tags:

[Slashdot] [Digg] [Reddit] [del.icio.us] [Facebook] [Technorati] [Google] [StumbleUpon]
This entry was posted in Analyst Coverage, Stock. Bookmark the permalink. Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL.
  • protosphere

    “We certainly don’t have those same concerns today” (Fall of 2002)
    Why not? It seems to me that they had exponentially less woes back then excluding the rate of decline, that sole attribute that brought them to that state trading as low as 43 cents presplit /thats $4.30 adjusted.

    “After rallying with its strong Q3 results”
    That's hysterical… What strong results? Operations tanked as an aggregate and the only reason they claimed any profit at all was soley due to monetary exchange rate gains. Exchange rates have since corrected from around 10% when they posted this makes any difference.

    Last time they posted profits was in Q205 where they were later revised. The mark to market profit in financials due to declining share price (settlement shares) was as confusing as more recent exchange rate profits, neither sold or for long, certainly not as long as the reverse Split asoiration before correcting . The 20 buck buck buying opportunity proved entertaining before it decline to 12 something… Nortel tries, analysts try, and I am dying to hear R.W. baird's punch line, the most staunch supporter I can think of. See how are the green NT analyst at Citibank's forecast is going so far =)

    Analysts give bum steers for years let alone now with all that vested interest out there for the billions in Nortel paper they printed to the open markets. Has anyone considered the mega dilution effect and selling pressure of 14.5% of their equity in one of the largest fraud settlements in history coming this year.

    “and expect that improvement to continue when Nortel announces its Q4 results”
    doesn't this run contrary to Nortel's downgraded outlook at the time of announcing Q3. When was the last time they posted a positive surprise, well …truthfully that is.

    “Nortel currently trades at about 0.5-0.6x the twelve-month forward consensus sales estimate” what about the declining revenues or unanticipated surprises given mergers furnish a smaller with greater competition, the sale of UMTS to ALA+LU, and the major hit to CDMA in 2008 that accounts for 80 to 90% of their EBT? Are there any provisions for error in their proverbial blunders in forecasting NT? Are sales growing? last large order was BSNL and we see how their acquisitions do. …Puleeeze, I beg to differ…

    May I suggest that there is and enormous vested interest in the open markets they printed billions to where analysts already gave bum steers for years grossly overstating, let alone now. Any spikes in the graph seem to be to what Nortel says like Q205 profits that were revised with numbers worse every time counted.

    Now we have to watch out for analysts too, as we await new auditors, SEC monitoring repair of controls, and so much more in this entertaining saga of power and corruption enticing speculative investment.

    Who can we trust… the regulating authorities or the enforcement and judicial efficiencies preventing open season on the investor besides formal financial statements that can be restated? Even restated a restated restatement in Nortel's case and still trade with analysts optimistic on unreliable numbers they can print paper with… again, puleeeze =)

    Who';s next? Heh, not me. Maybe Citibank or R.W. Baird, LOL

  • Casual Observer

    I guess that's what drove the stock up after lunch ? Did Chris have lunch with Mike Z today or something ? The volume chart of Nortel today looks like someone got back from lunch and decided to sart buying a lot of shares for his clients.

  • protosphere

    “We certainly don’t have those same concerns today” (Fall of 2002)
    Why not? It seems to me that they had exponentially less woes back then excluding the rate of decline, that sole attribute that brought them to that state trading as low as 43 cents presplit /thats $4.30 adjusted.

    “After rallying with its strong Q3 results”
    That's hysterical… What strong results? Operations tanked as an aggregate and the only reason they claimed any profit at all was soley due to monetary exchange rate gains. Exchange rates have since corrected from around 10% when they posted this makes any difference.

    Last time they posted profits was in Q205 where they were later revised. The mark to market profit in financials due to declining share price (settlement shares) was as confusing as more recent exchange rate profits, neither sold or for long, certainly not as long as the reverse Split asoiration before correcting . The 20 buck buck buying opportunity proved entertaining before it decline to 12 something… Nortel tries, analysts try, and I am dying to hear R.W. baird's punch line, the most staunch supporter I can think of. See how are the green NT analyst at Citibank's forecast is going so far =)

    Analysts give bum steers for years let alone now with all that vested interest out there for the billions in Nortel paper they printed to the open markets. Has anyone considered the mega dilution effect and selling pressure of 14.5% of their equity in one of the largest fraud settlements in history coming this year.

    “and expect that improvement to continue when Nortel announces its Q4 results”
    doesn't this run contrary to Nortel's downgraded outlook at the time of announcing Q3. When was the last time they posted a positive surprise, well …truthfully that is.

    “Nortel currently trades at about 0.5-0.6x the twelve-month forward consensus sales estimate” what about the declining revenues or unanticipated surprises given mergers furnish a smaller with greater competition, the sale of UMTS to ALA+LU, and the major hit to CDMA in 2008 that accounts for 80 to 90% of their EBT? Are there any provisions for error in their proverbial blunders in forecasting NT? Are sales growing? last large order was BSNL and we see how their acquisitions do. …Puleeeze, I beg to differ…

    May I suggest that there is and enormous vested interest in the open markets they printed billions to where analysts already gave bum steers for years grossly overstating, let alone now. Any spikes in the graph seem to be to what Nortel says like Q205 profits that were revised with numbers worse every time counted.

    Now we have to watch out for analysts too, as we await new auditors, SEC monitoring repair of controls, and so much more in this entertaining saga of power and corruption enticing speculative investment.

    Who can we trust… the regulating authorities or the enforcement and judicial efficiencies preventing open season on the investor besides formal financial statements that can be restated? Even restated a restated restatement in Nortel's case and still trade with analysts optimistic on unreliable numbers they can print paper with… again, puleeeze =)

    Who';s next? Heh, not me. Maybe Citibank or R.W. Baird, LOL

  • Casual Observer

    I guess that's what drove the stock up after lunch ? Did Chris have lunch with Mike Z today or something ? The volume chart of Nortel today looks like someone got back from lunch and decided to sart buying a lot of shares for his clients.

  • TwitterCounter for @markevans
  • Seeking Alpha Certified