Baird Maintains Rating

R.W. Baird has been the most staunch supporter of Nortel from inception.

I remember during the endless delays in silence when R.W. Baird was on TV telling everyone (in a shakey voice, like all Nortel’s spokespeople to date) they expected a benign restatement, until the RCMP formally moved in and Nortel admitted beiong led astray by those they held close relationships during the endless delays in silence.

After avoiding delsiting thanks to Cutlers revenue recognition on still false numbers and settling with one lead plaintiff holding a vested interest, they are lucky to still trade. however, Nortel then tanked one of the worlds largest fraud settlements by adding further revisions with unprecdented “no guarantees”, than their traditional not anticipating further surprises. Why, for numbers doubling estimates. revised worse literally by the week, where I dread to see another week’s further results.

If we look at anaysts targets over the last few years in earnings, Nortel has shattered optimsim by not only providing no earnings but furnishing greater ongoing losses in its death spiral.

Look at esculating rate of cash burn, where is the $500M annual savings from the 2004 layoffs/transfers, money from manufacturing, headquarters sale, exhausting assets to point of selling business as pure revenue / earnings and still, still losing money to see more truthful rate of decline.

They can not afford cuts in linear death spiral as they sell assets, move money, pay customers, anything to maintain revenues to look like a player while announcing piddley orders. Last order was BSNL’s mega loss years ago.

What’s changing having made a deal with the devil by these loophole artists and masters of deceit and delay where even bond application require their largest pension liabilities in Canada be specifically listed now than mere footnotes for the billions in bonds they printed to pay increasingly antsy creditors that increased collateralization 50% to $1.5B as well as $575M cash portion of fraud settlement. Printing short term woes away while losing money.

Reluctant to chase past officers resulting in a derivative class action seeking $1B as a starting point, one of the world’s largest frauds cost them nothing so far but printing paper in high risk bonds and tanking shares as they still keep bonuses for a year worse every time the count it with untransparent larger management lottery pay practices while losing more money, what’s changed for the better making a deal with the devil to minimize further damage? They even tanked the settlement shares paying shreholders with their own money with revisions adding no guarantees paying ansty creditors with bomds like robbing Peter to pay Paul. The masterful legal ploys are astounding.

If a company can not turn itself around in a year, it can’t turn itself around at all, and it has been years for Nortel.

The writing is clear as they lose money while others merge, no Neptune, no Putian, no BT, no BSNL profits, no PEC investment, no substantial returns in desperate gambles, no Force10, no WiMAx for Sprint, credibility with chronic overstating and dramatic revisions, etc… we can go on forever…, it is endless, just endless.

Their already negative cashflow is increasingly burdened with losses, selling assets, and moved money they can support for only so long dupe looking like a player…

Just how does R.W. Baird expect Nortel to break this trend with the CEO admitting inbetween the traditional hype they have “no miracles”, “rocky roads”, “tall mountains to climb” when we clearly see what their business and outlook is at this point. Even his science is off claiming “”Growth to a vibrant business is the equivalent of water and oxygen to plants.You grow or you extinguish.” funny the term sunlight escaped him and plants need carbon dioxide not oxygen they emit. It is all a comedy of errors and endless punchlines for this green team after so many departed. Downplaying revisions that double with a reluctance to chase past officers while keeping bonuses says it all. Nothing’s changed making a deal with the devil allowing them to se another day but prolonging the agony.

Survival remains a matter of physics if one does the simple arithmetic to see how exhausted assets to point of selling business adding pure gravey revenues/earnings while printing billions in paper and still losing money. The rate of decline had them near bankcruptcy with exponentially more woes now and seemingly good business gone, is nothing with so much more to come like fines, dilution, criminal results, debt issues, mergers, declining liquidity, etc., it is endless. Nortel’s punch lines have cried wolf long enough, when is enough enough already? After 2007′s trend and 2008′s 1.8B debt when they coincidentally plan to provide their extended from months to years repair of internal controls? It is endless… just endless.

Baird Raises Stock Price Target???
Mark, what happened with your objectivity_ impartiality?
How can you say Baird raised the target if the article clearly says Baird maintains his low target of $20 /it’s lower than current pps/
Are you sarcastic _ironic or just plain hyper_pumper of NT stock lately?
There is no reason to hype NT as smart investors will never be fooled by pumpers and the stock price itself will show in which direction NT stock is headed.
Let me ask at what level NT stock is traded?
Last time NT stock traded below $20 /new r.split numbers/
was in Dec 2002
so it is roughly 4 years lowest level.
This chart shows clearly that NT stock is going back to the level of Dec 2002
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NT&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

What does it mean? It means that NT stock is getting new lower levels each year.
in 2004 it was around $40
in 2005 it was $22.6
and in 2006 it is $19 so far with current pps $21.15 /Dec 1 2006/
Who would buy a stock which is trading lower year after year with unsolved mysteries of overstated revenues to the tune of $5 bill !

my bet is on $15 by middle of 2007 after which, a hostile takeover and breakup of the assets.

400 million shares are easy for a takeover. try getting 4.3 Billion shares.